Nutrien (TSX:NTR) has had a turbulent 2024, with a mix of challenging financial results and strategic moves to position itself for future growth. And it's not completely clear whether that's all behind the company quite yet. So, where could Nutrien stock be a year from now?

Into earnings

In its third-quarter 2024 earnings report, Nutrien stock posted net earnings of just $25 million, or $0.04 per diluted share. This marks a stark decline from the same period in 2023. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $1 billion. Plus, adjusted net earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.39, falling short of analyst expectations. Nutrien stock attributed much of this decline to external pressures, including falling crop prices that have affected farmers' purchasing power, leading to reduced fertilizer demand.

The financial struggles are reflected in the company's year-over-year performance. Nutrien stock's quarterly earnings growth has plummeted by 76%, and net sales dropped 5% to $5.35 billion compared to the same quarter last year. Despite these setbacks, Nutrien stock has maintained a strong position in its core market. Notably, Nutrien stock achieved record potash sales volumes of 11.1 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2024, showcasing its ability to weather industry headwinds. This underscores the resilience of its operations, even amid significant market volatility.

Value and dividends

A key area of focus for Nutrien stock moving forward is shareholder value. The company initiated a share-repurchase program, signalling management's confidence in long-term prospects. Share buybacks are often a positive signal to investors, as these can boost EPS and reflect a company's belief that its stock is undervalued. Furthermore, Nutrien stock's quarterly dividend of $0.54 per share, translating to an annualized dividend of $2.16, provides a yield of approximately 3.31%. For income-focused investors, this consistent payout may make Nutrien an attractive option in a volatile market.

Looking at the stock's valuation metrics, Nutrien stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.35. This suggests that it is reasonably priced relative to expected earnings growth. The company's price-to-book ratio of 0.96 indicates that the stock is trading near its book value. Another metric that could appeal to value-oriented investors. Despite these positives, the trailing P/E ratio has expanded to 32.71, reflecting the challenges Nutrien stock faces in generating consistent profits amid shifting market conditions.

What to watch

Nutrien stock's challenges are not unique, as the agricultural sector has faced broad headwinds due to declining crop prices and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade. However, the company's diversified portfolio, which includes not only potash but also nitrogen and phosphate products, provides some insulation from market fluctuations. Plus, Nutrien stock's investment in digital solutions and sustainable agricultural practices positions it well to capitalize on long-term trends in the farming industry.

As for whether now is the right time to buy, the decision depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance. For long-term investors, Nutrien stock's fundamentals suggest that it could recover as market conditions stabilize. The company's strategic initiatives, such as share buybacks and investments in growth areas, indicate a commitment to strengthening its position. However, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, and the stock's underwhelming performance relative to peers could signal continued volatility.

Bottom line

Nutrien stock is at a crossroads. While the company faces substantial challenges, its strategic moves and market presence provide hope for a brighter future. If you're a long-term investor with a focus on dividends and value, Nutrien stock might be worth considering, particularly given its relatively low valuation. However, patience and a willingness to ride out short-term fluctuations will be key. As always, conducting thorough research and consulting with a financial advisor is recommended before making any investment decisions.