T-Mobile's Premium Valuation Prompts Downgrade As Growth Projections Decelerate: Analyst
T-Mobile's Premium Valuation Prompts Downgrade As Growth Projections Decelerate: Analyst
Keybanc analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS) from Overweight to Sector Weight.
Keybanc分析师布兰登·尼斯佩尔将美国T-Mobile公司(纳斯达克股票代码:TMUS)的评级从增持下调至行业权重。
The rerating reflects the valuation, which Nispel noted as stretched, and was unwilling to raise his price target to justify the valuation.
重新评级反映了估值,Nispel认为估值过于紧张,并且不愿提高目标股价以证明估值的合理性。
The analyst noted a lot to like in the business that has proven to be the market share leader in Wireless for nearly the past decade, and its FWA business has proven to be accretive.
这位分析师指出,在过去的十年中,该业务已被证明是无线市场份额的领导者,其FWA业务已被证明具有增值作用,因此该业务有很多值得喜欢的地方。
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However, going forward, the competitive environment seems to be shifting toward a converged offering, with T-Mobile making acquisitions in the Fiber business at significant multiples that have yet to be proven.
但是,展望未来,竞争环境似乎正在向融合产品转变,T-Mobile对光纤业务的收购倍数可观,但尚未得到证实。
In addition, with T-Mobile guiding to ~5% EBITDA growth in fiscal 2025, this is still a significant deceleration from ~9% in fiscal 2024 and compares to AT&T Inc's Mobility business adjusted EBITDA guidance of 3%- 4%.
此外,T-Mobile预计2025财年的息税折旧摊销前利润将增长约5%,与2024财年的约9%相比,这仍显著减速,而At&T公司的移动业务调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润预期为3%至4%。
T-Mobile is trading at ~9.3 times Nispel's above consensus fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimates and ~15.1 times his fiscal 2026 price to free cash flow ratio, which compares to T-Mobile's 3-year average of ~9.3 times and ~15.5 times, respectively, and current AT&T and Verizon Communications Inc. average of ~6.3 times and ~10.1 times, respectively.
T-Mobile的交易价格约为Nispel调整后的2026财年息税折旧摊销前利润估计值的9.3倍,约为2026财年价格与自由现金流比率的15.1倍,相比之下,T-Mobile的3年平均水平分别为约9.3倍和约15.5倍,目前At&T和Verizon Communications Inc.的平均水平分别为约6.3倍和约10.1倍。
Nispel noted these multiples reflect T-Mobile's execution and premium growth profile. While the valuation could expand over the short term, the company has signaled through a reduction in the buyback that the stock is expensive and noted there are limits.
尼斯佩尔指出,这些倍数反映了T-Mobile的执行力和保费增长状况。尽管估值可能会在短期内扩大,但该公司已通过减少回购表示该股价格昂贵,并指出存在局限性。
T-Mobile has guided investors to 5% adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2025, a significant slowdown versus fiscal 2024 expected adjusted EBITDA growth of ~9%. Free cash flow growth is also expected to slow to ~2% by Nispel's estimates and ~4% for consensus, down from his estimate of 25% year-on-year in fiscal 2024.
T-Mobile已指导投资者在2025财年调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润增长5%,与2024财年预期的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润增长约9%相比,大幅放缓。根据Nispel的估计,自由现金流增长预计也将放缓至约2%,共识为约4%,低于他估计的2024财年同比增长25%。
T-Mobile has spoken about investments in the business, headwinds from ACP, and wholesale affecting EBITDA. In addition, cash taxes should be higher as T-Mobile becomes a full cash taxpayer, and T-Mobile has guided to higher capex, both of which will affect free cash flow.
T-Mobile曾谈到对该业务的投资、ACP的不利因素以及影响息税折旧摊销前利润的批发业务。此外,随着T-Mobile成为全额现金纳税人,现金税应该更高,而T-Mobile已经引导了更高的资本支出,这两者都将影响自由现金流。
With T-Mobile's valuation at a premium and growth expected to slow, Nispel sought better relative value. In that regard, he noted AT&T's 3% or greater adjusted EBITDA growth appears relatively attractive, given AT&T is trading at ~6.2 times his fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA. When looking at AT&T excluding Business Wireline, he expects AT&T's Mobility and Consumer Wireline growth to be 5.4% in fiscal 20'25, making AT&T appear relatively attractive. At current levels, Nispel noted T-Mobile as fairly valued.
由于T-Mobile的估值处于溢价状态,预计增长将放缓,Nispel寻求更好的相对价值。在这方面,他指出,鉴于At&T的交易价格约为2026财年调整后息税折旧摊销前利润的6.2倍,AT&T调整后3%或以上的息税折旧摊销前利润增长似乎相对具有吸引力。在考虑不包括商业有线电话的At&t时,他预计AT&T的移动和消费有线在20'25财年将增长5.4%,这使得At&T显得相对有吸引力。Nispel指出,按照目前的水平,T-Mobile的估值是合理的。
Nispel projected fourth-quarter revenue of $21.41 billion and EPS of $2.36.
Nispel预计第四季度收入为214.1亿美元,每股收益为2.36美元。
Price Action: TMUS stock is down 0.74% at $232.60 at last check Thursday.
价格走势:在周四的最后一次检查中,TMUS股价下跌0.74%,至232.60美元。
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