Is CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd (SZSE:300919) A Risky Investment?
Is CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd (SZSE:300919) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that CNGR Advanced Material Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300919) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
有人说波动性,而不是债务,是投资者思考风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾著名地说过:“波动性远非风险的同义词。”所以聪明的钱知道,债务——通常涉及破产——在评估一家公司的风险时是一个非常重要的因素。我们可以看到,中伟股份有限公司(SZSE:300919)确实在其业务中使用债务。但股东应该担心其债务使用吗?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
一般来说,债务只有在公司无法轻松偿还时才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过融资或自身的自由现金流。资本主义的一个基本组成部分是“创造性破坏”的过程,失败的企业会被其银行毫不留情地清算。然而,更为频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低估价格发行股票,永久性稀释股东的权益,仅仅是为了修复其资产负债表。当然,债务对企业尤其是资本密集型企业来说是一种重要工具。在考虑公司的债务水平时,第一步是将现金和债务一起考虑。
What Is CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd's Net Debt?
中伟股份的净债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd had debt of CN¥27.5b, up from CN¥22.7b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥14.4b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥13.1b.
下方的图片,可以点击以获取更多细节,显示到2024年9月,中伟股份的债务为275亿人民币,较一年前的227亿人民币有所增加。另一方面,公司的现金为144亿人民币,导致净债务约为131亿人民币。
How Healthy Is CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd's Balance Sheet?
中伟股份的资产负债表健康吗?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd had liabilities of CN¥20.6b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥22.1b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥14.4b in cash and CN¥5.31b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥22.9b.
细看最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到中伟股份在12个月内有206亿人民币的负债,12个月后有221亿人民币的负债。对此,它有144亿人民币的现金和53.1亿人民币的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债超过现金和(短期)应收账款总和229亿人民币。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of CN¥37.4b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
这个赤字相对于其374亿人民币的市值是相当大的,所以确实建议股东关注中伟股份的债务使用情况。这表明如果公司急需增强其资产负债表,股东将会受到严重的稀释。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
为了评估一家公司的债务相对于其收益的情况,我们计算其净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及息税利润(EBIT)与利息费用(即利息覆盖)的比率。这种方法的优点在于我们同时考虑到债务的绝对数额(使用净债务与EBITDA的比率)和与该债务相关的实际利息支出(使用利息覆盖率)。
CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd's debt is 3.5 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.6 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. However, one redeeming factor is that CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd grew its EBIT at 14% over the last 12 months, boosting its ability to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
中伟股份的债务是其EBITDA的3.5倍,其EBIT可覆盖利息支出3.6倍。这表明虽然债务水平相当高,但我们不会称其为问题。然而,一个值得注意的因素是中伟股份在过去12个月内EBIT增长了14%,提升了其处理债务的能力。在分析债务时,资产负债表显然是重点。但最终,业务未来的盈利能力将决定中伟股份能否随着时间的推移强化其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最后,虽然税务者可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,合理的步骤是查看实际自由现金流匹配的EBIT比例。在过去三年中,中伟股份烧掉了很多现金。虽然这可能是出于增长支出的原因,但确实使得债务风险更高。
Our View
我们的观点
Mulling over CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd's attempt at converting EBIT to free cash flow, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for CNGR Advanced MaterialLtd you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
对于中伟股份的EBIt转化为自由现金流的尝试,我们并不感到乐观。 但从积极的一面来看,其EBIt增长率是个好迹象,让我们更加乐观。 一旦考虑到上述所有因素,我们认为中伟股份的负债使其有些冒险。 有些人喜欢这种风险,但我们意识到潜在的陷阱,因此我们可能更希望它的负债较少。 毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到最多的关于负债的知识。 然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中 - 远非如此。 举例来说:我们发现了中伟股份的4个警告信号,您应该了解,其中1个信号有点令人不快。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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