Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Shareholders Have Earned a 23% CAGR Over the Last Five Years
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Shareholders Have Earned a 23% CAGR Over the Last Five Years
It hasn't been the best quarter for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 11% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. It's fair to say most would be happy with 139% the gain in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.
对于马拉松原油公司(纽交所:MPC)股东来说,这个季度并不是最好的一季,因为股价在此期间下降了11%。但这并不能改变过去五年回报非常强劲的事实。可以说,大多数人会对这段时间的139%的收益感到满意。对一些人来说,在如此快速的上涨后的近期回调并不令人惊讶。只有时间能告诉我们目前股价是否仍然反映了过多的乐观情绪。
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
让我们评估一下过去五年的基本面,看看它们是否与股东回报保持一致。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
尽管市场是一个强大的定价机制,股价反映了投资者情绪,而不仅仅是基础业务表现。 通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价的变化,我们可以感受到投资者对公司的态度是如何随时间演变的。
During five years of share price growth, Marathon Petroleum achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 30% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 19% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 10.40 also suggests market apprehension.
在五年的股价增长中,马拉松原油实现了每股收益(EPS)年复合增长率为30%。与同期19%的年度股价涨幅相比,EPS的增长更为令人印象深刻。因此,可以得出结论,市场对该股票变得更加谨慎。合理较低的市盈率10.40也表明了市场的忧虑。
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
您可以在下面的图像中查看每股收益随时间的变化(单击图表查看确切值)。
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Marathon Petroleum's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
值得注意的是,我们在上个季度看到了显著的内部人买入,这被我们视为积极信号。另一方面,我们认为营业收入和每股收益的趋势是业务更有意义的衡量标准。查看我们关于马拉松原油的每股收益、营业收入和现金流的免费报告可能非常有价值。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Marathon Petroleum's TSR for the last 5 years was 182%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是考虑总股东回报(TSR)与股价回报之间的差异。股价回报仅反映股价的变化,而TSR包括分红的价值(假定被再投资)和任何折扣资本筹集或分拆的好处。因此,对于那些支付丰厚分红的公司,TSR通常高于股价回报。事实上,马拉松原油过去5年的TSR为182%,高于之前提到的股价回报。因此,公司支付的分红提升了总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
Investors in Marathon Petroleum had a tough year, with a total loss of 1.1% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 30%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 23%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Marathon Petroleum you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
马拉松原油的投资者在过去一年经历了艰难的一年,总损失为1.1%(包括分红),而市场增长约为30%。即使好的股票的股价有时也会下跌,但我们希望在对业务产生兴趣之前,看到基本指标的改善。长期投资者不会感到太沮丧,因为在五年内他们每年都有23%的回报。如果基本数据继续显示长期可持续增长,当前的抛售可能是一个值得考虑的机会。我发现长期股价作为业务表现的替代指标非常有趣。但要真正获得洞察,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如:我们已经发现马拉松原油的3个警告信号,你应该注意其中1个是不能忽视的。
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.
还有很多其他公司内部人士正在买入股票。你可能不想错过这份内部人士正在购买的被低估的小盘公司的免费名单。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了当前在美国交易所上市股票的市场加权平均回报。
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这篇来自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,采用无偏见的方法,我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。它不构成对任何股票的买入或卖出建议,也未考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。