Is Tianjin Port Holdings (SHSE:600717) A Risky Investment?
Is Tianjin Port Holdings (SHSE:600717) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Tianjin Port Holdings Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600717) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
传奇基金经理李禄(查理·芒格支持的人)曾说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资金的永久损失。” 因此,聪明的钱知道,债务——通常涉及破产——在评估一家公司的风险时是一个非常重要的因素。与许多其他公司一样,天津港控股有限公司(SHSE:600717)也利用了债务。但股东是否应该担心其债务使用情况?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还其贷方,那么它就处于贷方的控制之下。最终,如果公司无法履行其法律义务偿还债务,股东可能会一无所获。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是,它必须以低价格筹集新的股本,从而永久稀释股东的权益。但是,债务可以替代稀释,对需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业来说,是一个极好的工具。考虑一家企业使用多少债务时,首先要查看其现金和债务的总和。
How Much Debt Does Tianjin Port Holdings Carry?
天津港控股公司的债务有多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Tianjin Port Holdings had CN¥4.87b of debt in September 2024, down from CN¥5.46b, one year before. But it also has CN¥5.76b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥893.5m net cash.
您可以点击下面的图形查看历史数据,但它显示,天津港控股公司在2024年9月的债务为48.7亿人民币,与一年前的54.6亿人民币相比有所下降。但它也有57.6亿人民币的现金来抵消这部分债务,这意味着它的净现金为89350万人民币。
How Healthy Is Tianjin Port Holdings' Balance Sheet?
天津港控股的资产负债表健康吗?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Tianjin Port Holdings had liabilities of CN¥5.77b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥3.87b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥5.76b as well as receivables valued at CN¥2.07b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥1.80b.
从最近的资产负债表来看,天津港控股在一年内到期的负债为57.7亿人民币,超出这一期限的负债为38.7亿人民币。为了抵消这些义务,它拥有现金57.6亿人民币以及在12个月内到期的应收款20.7亿人民币。因此,它的负债超出现金和(短期)应收款的总和18亿人民币。
Of course, Tianjin Port Holdings has a market capitalization of CN¥14.5b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Tianjin Port Holdings boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
当然,天津港控股的市值为145亿人民币,因此这些负债可能是可以管理的。然而,我们确实认为值得关注其资产负债表的稳定性,因为这可能会随着时间的推移而变化。尽管其负债显著,但天津港控股拥有净现金,所以可以说它并没有沉重的债务负担!
But the other side of the story is that Tianjin Port Holdings saw its EBIT decline by 6.9% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Tianjin Port Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
但是故事的另一面是,天津港控股的EBIT在过去一年中下降了6.9%。如果利润继续以这个速度下降,公司可能会越来越难以管理其债务负担。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到最多的就是债务。但未来的收益,尤其是未来的收益,将决定天津港控股维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Tianjin Port Holdings has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Tianjin Port Holdings actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
最后,尽管税务官可能喜爱会计利润,但放贷者只接受冷硬的现金。虽然天津港控股的资产负债表上有净现金,但查看其将息税前利润(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力仍然值得,这有助于我们理解它在多快地增加(或减少)现金余额。在过去三年里,天津港控股实际上产生了比EBIT更多的自由现金流。在维持与放贷者良好关系方面,没有什么比现金流入更重要的了。
Summing Up
总结
While Tianjin Port Holdings does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of CN¥893.5m. The cherry on top was that in converted 113% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥1.8b. So is Tianjin Port Holdings's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Tianjin Port Holdings that you should be aware of.
虽然天津港控股公司的负债超过流动资产,但其净现金为CN¥89350万。 让人欣喜的是,它将113%的EBIT转化为自由现金流,带来了CN¥18亿。 所以天津港控股公司的债务是风险吗?在我们看来似乎不是。 资产负债表显然是分析债务时应关注的部分。 但归根结底,每个公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。 例如,我们已识别出1个天津港控股公司需注意的警示信号。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
无论最终结果如何,有时候更容易关注那些根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以立即免费获取一份净债务为零的成长股列表。
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