With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.9x Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent earnings growth for Murphy USA has been in line with the market. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this modest earnings performance will accelerate. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Murphy USA's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Although pleasingly EPS has lifted 94% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 8.8% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 11% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Murphy USA is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Murphy USA's P/E

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Murphy USA currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Murphy USA that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Murphy USA, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.