Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Says "Nvidia GB300/B300 DrMOS Testing Update: Severe Thermal Issues With AOS, MPS Order Trends May Be Better-Than-Feared" - Medium
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Says "Nvidia GB300/B300 DrMOS Testing Update: Severe Thermal Issues With AOS, MPS Order Trends May Be Better-Than-Feared" - Medium
Event:
The DrMOS chips currently being tested for the GB300/B300 system are AOS's 5x5 and MPS's 5x6. My latest supply chain survey indicates that AOS's chips were experiencing severe thermal issues.
事件:
目前正在为GB300/B300系统测试的DrMOS芯片是AOS的5x5和MPS的5x6。我的最新供应链调查显示,AOS的芯片正面临严重的热管理问题。
Analysis:
1. Nvidia prioritized testing AOS's 5x5 DrMOS for two reasons: 1) To strengthen its bargaining power against MPS to lower costs, and 2) AOS has more excellent expertise in the design and production of 5x5 DrMOS.
2. The chip itself may not solely cause the thermal issue but could also result from insufficient optimization in other designs, such as system thermal management.
3. If the issue remains unresolved, Nvidia may take proactive measures to avoid delays in GB300/B300 mass production. These could include 1) Engaging alternative 5x5 DrMOS suppliers, such as requesting test samples from MPS, and 2) Accelerating testing of MPS's 5x6 DrMOS. Such actions could dampen the market's highly optimistic outlook on AOS's future orders in the short term.
4. 5x6 DrMOS comes with higher costs but offers better thermal performance. If the thermal issue with 5x5 DrMOS persists, the likelihood of Nvidia switching to 5x6 DrMOS will increase, potentially benefiting MPS, which has a technology advantage in the 5x6 design.
分析:
1. 英伟达优先测试AOS的5x5 DrMOS有两个原因:1) 加强与MPS的谈判能力以降低成本,2) AOS在5x5 DrMOS的设计和生产方面有更优秀的专业知识。
2. 芯片本身可能并不是导致热管理问题的唯一原因,还可能是其他设计(如系统热管理)优化不足造成的。
3. 如果问题仍未解决,英伟达可能会采取主动措施以避免GB300/B300量产的延迟。这些措施可能包括:1) 寻找替代的5x5 DrMOS供应商,比如向MPS请求测试样品,2) 加快对MPS的5x6 DrMOS的测试。这些措施可能会抑制市场对AOS未来订单的高度乐观预期。
4. 5x6 DrMOS成本更高,但提供更好的热性能。如果5x5 DrMOS的热管理问题持续存在,英伟达转向5x6 DrMOS的可能性将增加,这可能会使具备5x6设计技术优势的MPS受益。
Conclusion:
With GB300/B300 still some time away from mass production, This event doesn't mean that AOS can't eventually benefit from GB300/B300. However, to avoid repeating delays seen with GB200/B200, Nvidia's efforts to seek alternative 5x5 DrMOS suppliers or to accelerate testing of MPS's 5x6 DrMOS could impact the market's high expectations for AOS's orders in the near term.
结论:
由于GB300/B300离大规模生产还有一段时间,这个事件并不意味着AOS无法最终受益于GB300/B300。然而,为了避免重演GB200/B200所出现的延迟,英伟达寻求替代5x5 DrMOS供应商的努力或加速测试MPS的5x6 DrMOS可能会影响市场对AOS近期订单的高期望。