We Think Wenzhou Yihua Connector (SZSE:002897) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Wenzhou Yihua Connector (SZSE:002897) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002897) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
有人说,作为投资者,波动性而不是债务是思考风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾著名地说:'波动性远非与风险同义。'因此,聪明的钱知道,债务——通常与破产相关——是评估公司风险时一个非常重要的因素。 与许多其他公司一样,意华股份(SZSE:002897)也使用债务。但这种债务对股东来说是个问题吗?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务带来风险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助业务增长的工具,但如果一个企业无法偿还其贷方,那么它就处在贷方的掌控之下。如果情况变得十分糟糕,贷方可以控制该公司。然而,更常见(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以讨价还价的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,只为改善其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处在于它通常代表着廉价资本,特别是在替代高回报率再投资能力的公司中稀释时。考虑公司债务水平的第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
What Is Wenzhou Yihua Connector's Debt?
意华股份的债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Wenzhou Yihua Connector had debt of CN¥2.40b, up from CN¥2.28b in one year. However, it also had CN¥1.10b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥1.30b.
下图,您可以点击以查看更多详细信息,显示截至2024年6月,意华股份的债务为24亿人民币,比一年前的22.8亿人民币增加了。然而,它也有11亿人民币的现金,因此其净债务为13亿人民币。
How Strong Is Wenzhou Yihua Connector's Balance Sheet?
意华股份的资产负债表有多强劲?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Wenzhou Yihua Connector had liabilities of CN¥3.18b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥904.0m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.10b as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.70b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥1.28b.
从最新的资产负债表来看,意华股份的负债为317亿元在一年内到期,且有90400万元负债在此之后到期。为抵消这些义务,它拥有现金11亿元以及价值17亿元在12个月内到期的应收款。因此,它的负债超出了现金和(短期)应收款的总和12.8亿元。
Since publicly traded Wenzhou Yihua Connector shares are worth a total of CN¥8.25b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
由于上市的意华股份总市值为82.5亿元,似乎这些负债的水平不会构成重大威胁。然而,我们认为仍然值得关注其资产负债表的强度,因为它可能会随时间而变化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了衡量一家公司相对于其收益的债务水平,我们计算其净负债与利息、税项、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及其利息和税项前利润(EBIT)与其利息支出(利息支付比率)的比率。因此,我们考虑了包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用的收益相对于债务的情况。
Wenzhou Yihua Connector's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.3 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Looking on the bright side, Wenzhou Yihua Connector boosted its EBIT by a silky 81% in the last year. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Wenzhou Yihua Connector's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
意华股份的债务是其EBITDA的2.8倍,EBIT覆盖其利息支出3.3倍。综合来看,这意味着我们不希望看到债务水平上升,但我们认为它能够应对当前的杠杆情况。从积极的一面来看,意华股份在过去一年里将其EBIT提升了81%。这种增长就像母亲对新生儿的爱之抱持,增强了公司的韧性,使其更能有效地管理债务。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的最重要的关于债务的知识。但是,未来的收益,尤其是会决定意华股份维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Wenzhou Yihua Connector saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最后,尽管税务部门可能喜欢会计利润,贷款人只接受冷硬的现金。因此,检查EBIT中有多少是有自由现金流支持的,这一点很重要。在过去的三年中,意华股份的自由现金流总计出现了显著的负值。虽然投资者无疑期望这种情况会在适当的时候发生逆转,但显然这意味着其使用债务的风险更高。
Our View
我们的观点
Neither Wenzhou Yihua Connector's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its interest cover gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. We think that Wenzhou Yihua Connector's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Wenzhou Yihua Connector (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
无论是意华股份将EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力,还是其利息覆盖率,都没有让我们对其承担更多债务的能力感到信恳智能。好消息是,它似乎能够轻松地增长EBIT。我们认为,考虑到上述数据点,意华股份的债务确实让它变得有些风险。这不一定是坏事,因为杠杆可以提升股本回报,但这确实是需要关注的事情。在分析债务时,资产负债表显然是需要关注的领域。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。为此,您应该了解我们发现的意华股份的两个警示信号(其中之一令我们感到不太满意)。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果你是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来发现我们独家的净现金成长股票列表。
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