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Is Nutrien Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?

Is Nutrien Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?

2025年,Nutrien股票是买入、卖出还是持有?
The Motley Fool ·  12/16 17:15

Nutrien (TSX:NTR) is down about 10% in 2024. Contrarian investors are wondering if NTR stock is now undervalued and good to buy for a self-directed portfolio focused on dividends and total returns.

Nutrien(TSX:NTR)在2024年下跌了约10%。逆势投资者在想NTR股票是否现在被低估,适合买入用于集中在分红派息和总回报的自我导向投资组合。

Nutrien share price

Nutrien 股票价格

Nutrien trades for close to $68 on the TSX at the time of writing. The stock is above the 12-month low of around $61 but is way off the $140 it hit in early 2022 when war broke out between Russia and Ukraine.

在撰写本文时,Nutrien的交易价格接近68美元。此股票高于约61美元的12个月低点,但远低于2022年初俄乌战争爆发时的140美元。

Nutrien is a major player in the global crop nutrients sector.

Nutrien是全球作物营养行业板块的主要参与者。

The stock initially surged in 2022 due to concerns that Russian and Belarus producers of potash would see their ability to supply global markets severely restricted. Potash prices spiked to US$1,200 per tonne when the war broke out but declined through the rest of 2022 and continued to slide in 2023. Through most of 2025, the price has been close to US$300. Investors are hoping a bottom is forming and that the next upward leg in the commodity cycle could be on the way next year.

由于人们担心俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的钾肥生产商将严重限制其向全球市场的供应能力,股票在2022年最初大幅上涨。钾肥价格在战争爆发时暴涨至每吨1200美元,但在2022年剩余时间里逐渐下滑,并在2023年继续下跌。在2025年的大部分时间里,价格接近300美元。投资者希望形成底部,并期待商品周期的下一次上涨可能将在明年到来。

Nutrien earnings

Nutrien的收益

Nutrien reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of US$1.01 billion in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024 compared to $1.08 billion in the same period last year. For the first nine months of 2024, adjusted EBITDA came in at US$4.30 billion compared to US$4.98 billion in 2023.

Nutrien报告称,2024年第三季度(Q3)调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为10.1亿美元,去年同期为10.8亿美元。2024年前九个月的调整后EBITDA为43亿美元,而2023年为49.8亿美元。

Weak prices for the commodities have largely been the story in 2024. Retail results slipped in Q3, but the division delivered a 10% gain in adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of the year.

2024年,商品价格疲软在很大程度上成为了故事。尽管Q3的零售业绩有所下滑,但该部门在今年前九个月的调整后EBITDA实现了10%的增长。

Potash sales hit record volumes in the first three quarters of 2024, but the lower prices resulted in a 20% drop in adjusted EBITDA to US$1.56 billion, although the decline in Q3 was just 9%.

2024年前三个季度的钾肥销售创下纪录,但由于价格下降,调整后的EBITDA下降了20%,降至15.6亿美元,但第三季度的降幅仅为9%。

Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA slipped 8% for the first nine months of the year, but there was a 21% increase for Q3 due to better pricing, so things could be turning the corner in the nitrogen market.

氮肥的调整后EBITDA在今年前九个月下降了8%,但由于价格改善,第三季度的增幅为21%,因此氮肥市场可能开始好转。

Phosphate-adjusted EBITDA fell 12% in the first three quarters of the year. The Q3 results came in essentially flat compared to Q3 2023.

磷肥的调整后EBITDA在今年前三个季度下降了12%。第三季度的结果与2023年第三季度基本持平。

Outlook

展望

Weather, currency markets, and crop prices all impact demand for Nutrien's products. As climate change leads to more severe weather conditions, the coming years will likely see more volatility. Longer and more severe droughts will combine with larger and more frequent storms to impact the global agriculture industry.

天气、货币市场和作物价格都影响Nutrien产品的需求。随着气候变化导致天气条件变得越来越严峻,未来几年可能会出现更多波动。更长时间和更严重的干旱将与更大和更频繁的风暴结合,影响全球农业行业。

In the Q3 report, Nutrien said favourable growing conditions in the U.S. this year should put farmers in a good financial position heading into 2025. That tends to support solid fertilizer, seed, and crop protection demand for the next planting season.

在第三季度报告中,Nutrien表示,今年美国有利的生长条件应使农民在进入2025年时处于良好的财务状况。这往往会支持下一种植季节对化肥、种子和作物保护的强劲需求。

On the wholesale side, Nutrien raised its 2024 global potash shipments forecast to 70-72 million tonnes, driven by better demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia. Nutrien expects 2025 global potash shipments to be 71-74 million tonnes. Limited new capacity is expected to come online, so prices could drift higher in 2025 on demand growth.

在批发方面,Nutrien将其2024年全球钾肥出货量预测上调至7000-7200万吨,受到巴西和东南亚需求改善的推动。Nutrien预计2025年全球钾肥出货量将达到7100-7400万吨。预计新的产能有限,因此在需求增长的情况下,价格在2025年可能会上涨。

Phosphate and nitrogen could also see improved prices, driven by project delays and supply outages. Nitrogen inventory in the U.S. was estimated to be below average levels in Q3, according to Nutrien, so there could be a demand boost in the first part of the year.

磷酸盐和氮气的价格也可能会改善,原因是项目延误和供应中断。根据Nutrien的数据,第三季度美国的氮库存预计低于平均水平,因此在年初可能会出现需求激增。

Over the long run, rising populations will boost demand for food. At the same time, urban sprawl will continue to consume farmland. In addition, the expansion of the middle class in heavily populated emerging markets will increase demand for meat, leading to rising demand for animal feed.

从长远来看,人口增长将推动对食物的需求。与此同时,城市扩张将继续消耗农田。此外,人口众多的新兴市场中产阶级的扩大将增加对家畜肉类的需求,从而导致对动物饲料需求的增加。

As such, the big picture should be positive for Nutrien.

因此,从整体来看,Nutrien的前景应该是积极的。

Should you buy now?

现在应该买入吗?

The market appears to be stabilizing ahead of 2025. Contrarian investors might want to start nibbling on Nutrien at the current level. You can pick up a decent 4.4% dividend yield today while you wait for the rebound.

市场似乎在2025年前趋于稳定。反向投资者可能会想在当前水平上逐步买入Nutrien。今天你可以获得不错的4.4%的分红派息,同时等待反弹。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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