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Is Xiamen Changelight (SZSE:300102) A Risky Investment?

Is Xiamen Changelight (SZSE:300102) A Risky Investment?

厦门乾照光电(深交所代码:300102)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  12/17 09:50

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Xiamen Changelight Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300102) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录明确表示:‘最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资本的永久损失。’因此,在考虑任何给定股票的风险时,您需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务可能会导致公司破产。我们注意到, 乾照光电有限公司(SZSE:300102)确实在其资产负债表上有债务。但真正的问题是,这些债务是否使公司面临风险。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时会变得危险?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般来说,债务只有在公司无法轻松偿还时才会成为真正的问题,要么通过融资,要么用自己的现金流来偿还。资本主义的一个重要组成部分是‘创造性毁灭’的过程,失败的企业会被他们的银行家毫不留情地清算。然而,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须在低股价下稀释股东以控制债务。当然,许多公司借助债务来融资增长,没有任何负面后果。当我们审视债务水平时,首先考虑的是现金和债务水平的结合。

What Is Xiamen Changelight's Net Debt?

乾照光电的净债务是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Xiamen Changelight had CN¥1.33b of debt, an increase on CN¥967.0m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥928.8m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥404.2m.

您可以点击下面的图形查看历史数据,但它显示截至2024年9月,乾照光电的债务为CN¥13.3亿,比一年前的CN¥96700万有所增加。然而,由于它有CN¥92880万的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为CN¥40420万。

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SZSE:300102 Debt to Equity History December 17th 2024
SZSE:300102 债务与股本历史 2024年12月17日

How Strong Is Xiamen Changelight's Balance Sheet?

厦门乾照光电的资产负债表有多强?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Xiamen Changelight had liabilities of CN¥1.55b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥839.2m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥928.8m as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.22b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥245.6m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根据最新的资产负债表,厦门乾照光电有15.5亿人民币的负债需在12个月内偿还,83920万人民币的负债需在12个月后偿还。抵消这些义务,它拥有92880万人民币的现金以及价值12.2亿人民币的应收款项(需在12个月内偿还)。因此,它的负债总额比现金和近期应收款项多出24560万人民币。

Of course, Xiamen Changelight has a market capitalization of CN¥11.4b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

当然,厦门乾照光电的市值为114亿人民币,因此这些负债大概是可以管理的。话虽如此,显然我们应该继续监测其资产负债表,以免发生恶化。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

我们使用两个主要指标来告知我们债务水平与盈利的关系。第一个是净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,而第二个是其息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖其利息费用(或其利息覆盖,简称)。这种方法的优点在于我们考虑了债务的绝对数量(通过净债务与EBITDA比率)和与该债务相关的实际利息费用(通过其利息覆盖比率)。

Xiamen Changelight has a very low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.93 so it is strange to see weak interest coverage, with last year's EBIT being only 1.7 times the interest expense. So while we're not necessarily alarmed we think that its debt is far from trivial. We also note that Xiamen Changelight improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive CN¥57m. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Xiamen Changelight will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

厦门乾照光电的债务与EBITDA比率非常低,仅为0.93,所以看到利息覆盖率较弱就有些奇怪,去年EBIT仅为利息支出的1.7倍。因此,虽然我们并不感到惊慌,但我们认为其债务绝非微不足道。我们还注意到厦门乾照光电将去年的亏损情况改善至5700万人民币的盈利。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是最明显的起点。但你不能单独看待债务;因为厦门乾照光电需要盈利来偿还这部分债务。因此,如果你想了解更多关于其盈利情况,查看其长期盈利趋势的图表可能会很有价值。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. During the last year, Xiamen Changelight burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

最后,一家企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本不起作用。因此,检查其息税前利润(EBIT)有多少能转换为实际自由现金流是很重要的。在过去的一年里,厦门乾照光电消耗了大量现金。虽然这可能是由于增长支出,但确实使得债务风险大大增加。

Our View

我们的观点

While Xiamen Changelight's interest cover makes us cautious about it, its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow is no better. But its not so bad at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA,. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Xiamen Changelight's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Xiamen Changelight (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

虽然乾照光电的利息覆盖率让我们对其保持谨慎,但其将EBIT转化为自由现金流的记录也并不理想。根据其EBITDA,它在管理债务方面表现尚可。综合考虑上述因素,我们确实认为乾照光电的债务对业务构成了一定风险。因此,尽管这种杠杆确实提高了股本回报,但我们并不希望看到它在此基础上进一步增加。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个好的起点。但归根结底,所有公司都可能存在那些不在资产负债表上的风险。例如,我们发现乾照光电有两个警告信号(其中一个让我们很不舒服!),在您投资之前需要注意这一点。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

无论最终结果如何,有时候更容易关注那些根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以立即免费获取一份净债务为零的成长股列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇来自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,采用无偏见的方法,我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。它不构成对任何股票的买入或卖出建议,也未考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。

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