Developer sales in December are expected to fall significantly.
November saw 2,557 new private home sales, the highest number of new units sold in a single month since 2,793 units were shifted in March 2013, however, analysts say this surge is just temporary as interest was mostly fueled by six back-to-back launches in the month.
The six projects alone accounted for 82% of new home sales. These are from Union Square Residences, The Collective at One Sophia, Chuan Park, Nava Grove, and Emerald of Katong – collectively shifted 2,106 units. Meanwhile, the other new project, Novo Place EC sold 289 units in November.
The top three projects were Emerald of Katong saw strong demand, with 99.3% of its units sold during the launch month. Chuan Park also saw strong buyer interest last month, with 78.7% of its units sold, due to its prime location near Lorong Chuan MRT station and easy access to the central region via public transport.
Meanwhile, Nava Grove also achieved strong sales, with nearly 70% of its units sold.
Christine Sun, Chief Researcher & Strategist at OrangeTee said the surge in sales is temporary.
"Throughout 2024, new home demand has been subdued, primarily due to the lack of significant private project launches. Notably, sales during the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to only 3,049 units, the lowest Q1 to Q3 figures recorded since 2004, the year when data from URA first became available," Sun said.
Wong Siew Ying, Head of Research & Content, PropNex Realty agreed, saying that November's robust sales have to be seen in context and do not automatically imply that an unfettered resurgence is upon the private housing market.
"Buyers, by and large, remain discerning and continue to take a long-term view of their property purchase. We note that projects that are centrally-located with a higher entry price had more measured take-up rates in November. Given the lack of new project launches in December, we expect developers' sales to fall significantly from that of November. For the full-year 2024, we project that new home sales could range from 6,500 to 7,000 units excluding EC," Wong said.
Analysts also expect a significant drop in sales in December, but will pick up on Q1 2025.
In Jan 2025, Bagnall Haus and The Orie will be launched for sale before the Lunar New Year. Five launches are planned for the month of Feb 2025 after the Lunar New Year. These launches are Aurea, Aurelle of Tampines (EC), Elta, Lentor Central Residences and Parktown Residence. Huttons Data Analytics is cautiously optimistic about a better performance in the sales market in 2025. Some of the unsatiated demand in 2024 may flow over to the launches in Q1 2025," Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director, Data Analytics at Huttons said.
Leonard Tay, Head, of Research at Knight Frank Singapore, however, cautioned that 2025 is likely to become more volatile as geo-political tensions continue to increase as the year closes.
"Especially with greater uncertainty in the Middle East and the current impasse in Ukraine. A second Trump presidency with warning shots of more tariffs and protectionist policies might affect businesses all over the world, affecting the flow of trade and the global economy. Should these combine to affect Singapore's improving economy and the job market, homebuying demand might revert back to the sidelines as it did for much of 2024," Tay said.
11月份新增私人住宅销售量为2,557套,这是自2013年3月转移2793套住宅以来单月销售量的最高水平。但是,分析师表示,这种激增只是暂时的,因为兴趣主要是由该月连续六次推出的推动的。
仅这六个项目就占新屋销售的82%。这些单位来自联合广场住宅、索菲亚一号的集体住宅、川公园、纳瓦格罗夫和加东翡翠——共转移了2,106套住房。同时,另一个新项目Novo Place EC在11月售出了289套住房。
排名前三的项目是加东翡翠,需求强劲,其单位在发布月份售出99.3%。上个月,Chuan Park也引起了强烈的买家兴趣,其单位售出78.7%,这要归因于其靠近罗龙川地铁站的黄金地段,并且可通过公共交通轻松前往中部地区。
同时,Nava Grove也实现了强劲的销售额,其单位已售出近70%。
OrangeTee首席研究员兼策略师克里斯汀·孙表示,销售额的激增是暂时的。
“在整个2024年,新房需求一直受到抑制,这主要是由于缺乏重要的私人项目启动。值得注意的是,2024年前三个季度的销量仅为3,049套,这是自2004年市建局首次公布数据以来第一季度至第三季度的最低水平,” 孙说。
Propnex Realty研究与内容主管黄秀英表示同意,他说11月份的强劲销售必须从背景来看,并不自动意味着私人住房市场将不受限制地复苏。
“总的来说,买家仍然挑剔,并继续从长远的角度看待他们的房地产购买。我们注意到,位于市中心且入门价格较高的项目在11月份的接受率更高。鉴于12月份没有推出新项目,我们预计开发商的销售额将比11月大幅下降。对于2024年全年,我们预计,不包括欧共体,新屋销售量可能在6,500至7,000套之间,” 黄说。
分析师还预计,12月份的销售额将大幅下降,但将在2025年第一季度回升。
2025年1月,Bagnall Haus和The Orie将在农历新年前推出发售。计划在农历新年之后的2025年2月进行五次发射。这些新推出的产品包括Aurea、淡滨尼的Aurelle(EC)、Elta、Lentor Central Residences和Parktown Residence。赫顿的数据分析对2025年销售市场的改善持谨慎乐观态度。2024 年部分未得到满足的需求可能会流向 2025 年第一季度的推出。” 哈顿数据分析高级董事李思泰克说。
但是,新加坡莱坊研究主管伦纳德·泰警告说,随着年底地缘政治紧张局势的持续加剧,2025年可能会变得更加动荡。
“尤其是在中东不确定性增加和乌克兰目前陷入僵局的情况下。特朗普在第二次总统任期内发出更多关税和保护主义政策的警告,可能会影响世界各地的企业,影响贸易流动和全球经济。如果这些因素共同影响新加坡经济和就业市场的改善,购房需求可能会像2024年的大部分时间一样恢复观望状态,” 泰说。