Is Sailun Group (SHSE:601058) A Risky Investment?
Is Sailun Group (SHSE:601058) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Sailun Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601058) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
大卫·伊本说得很好,'波动性不是我们关注的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久性损失。' 在审视一家公司的风险时,考虑其资产负债表是很自然的,因为债务往往与企业的崩溃有关。我们注意到,赛轮轮胎有限公司 (SHSE:601058) 确实在其资产负债表上有债务。但是,股东应该担心其债务使用吗?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何时债务成为问题?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业成长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还贷方的款项,它就处于贷方的控制之下。在最坏的情况下,如果一家公司无法支付其债权人,它可能会破产。然而,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东,仅仅是为了控制债务。也就是说,最常见的情况是公司合理管理其债务,并为自己谋取利益。当我们考虑一家公司使用债务时,首先要将现金和债务一起考虑。
How Much Debt Does Sailun Group Carry?
赛轮轮胎的债务有多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Sailun Group had CN¥9.43b of debt in September 2024, down from CN¥11.4b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥6.27b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥3.16b.
您可以点击下面的图形查看历史数据,但它显示赛轮轮胎在2024年9月的债务为94.3亿人民币,较一年前的114亿人民币下降。然而,由于其现金储备为62.7亿人民币,其净债务较少,约为31.6亿人民币。
A Look At Sailun Group's Liabilities
赛轮轮胎的负债情况
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Sailun Group had liabilities of CN¥14.7b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥4.09b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥6.27b in cash and CN¥6.62b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥5.95b.
仔细查看最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到赛轮轮胎在12个月内的负债为147亿人民币,而12个月之后的负债为40.9亿人民币。为了抵消这一点,它有62.7亿人民币的现金和66.2亿人民币的应收账款,这些应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债比现金和(短期)应收账款的总和多出59.5亿人民币。
Of course, Sailun Group has a market capitalization of CN¥44.9b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
当然,赛轮轮胎的市值为449亿人民币,因此这些负债可能是可以管理的。但是负债数额相当可观,我们肯定会建议股东在未来继续关注资产负债表。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们使用两个主要比率来了解相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净债务除以息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA),而第二个是它的息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出的次数(或者简称为利息覆盖率)。这样,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
Sailun Group's net debt is only 0.48 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 23.5 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On top of that, Sailun Group grew its EBIT by 71% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sailun Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
赛轮轮胎的净债务仅为其EBITDA的0.48倍。并且其EBIT覆盖利息费用的倍数高达23.5倍。因此你可以说,它的债务所带来的威胁与大象对老鼠的威胁相似。此外,赛轮轮胎在过去十二个月中将其EBIT增长了71%,这种增长将使其更容易处理债务。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是首要考虑的地方。但未来的收益,尤其是比什么,都将判断赛轮轮胎在未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Sailun Group created free cash flow amounting to 3.4% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;仅靠会计利润是无法满足的。因此我们总是检查EBIT有多少转化为自由现金流。在过去三年中,赛轮轮胎创造的自由现金流占其EBIT的3.4%,这一表现并不令人印象深刻。如此低的现金转换率削弱了其管理和偿还债务的能力。
Our View
我们的观点
The good news is that Sailun Group's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Sailun Group takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Sailun Group .
好消息是,赛轮轮胎展示了用EBIT支付利息的能力,像一只毛茸茸的小狗让 toddler 感到高兴。但残酷的事实是,我们对其EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力感到担忧。考虑到所有这些数据,我们认为赛轮轮胎在债务方面采取了相当理智的方法。这意味着他们承担了一些风险,希望提高股东回报。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到了最多的关于债务的信息。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。因此,您应该注意我们发现的赛轮轮胎的两个警告信号。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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