Is Plexus (NASDAQ:PLXS) A Risky Investment?
Is Plexus (NASDAQ:PLXS) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Plexus Corp. (NASDAQ:PLXS) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
一些人说,作为投资者,波动性比债务更能反映风险,但沃伦·巴菲特曾著名地表示,'波动性远非与风险同义'。因此,聪明的钱知道,债务——通常与破产相关——在评估一家公司风险时是一个非常重要的因素。我们注意到,普雷克萨斯公司(纳斯达克:PLXS)确实在其资产负债表上有债务。但更重要的问题是:这些债务究竟造成了多大的风险?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
债务在企业还清债务之前是有帮助的,无论是通过新的资本还是通过自由现金流。如果情况真的很糟,贷款人可能会控制企业。然而,一种更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,一家公司必须在低价股的情况下稀释股东,以便将债务控制在合理范围内。然而,通过替代稀释,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率进行增长投资的企业的极好工具。当考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是将其现金和债务一起考虑。
What Is Plexus's Net Debt?
普雷克萨斯的净债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Plexus had debt of US$203.8m at the end of September 2024, a reduction from US$387.8m over a year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds US$345.1m in cash, so it actually has US$141.3m net cash.
下图(您可以点击以查看更详细信息)显示,普雷克萨斯在2024年9月底时的债务为20380万美元,相较于一年前的38780万美元有所减少。然而,其资产负债表显示它持有34510万美元的现金,因此实际上它拥有14130万美元的净现金。
How Healthy Is Plexus' Balance Sheet?
普雷克萨斯的资产负债表健康吗?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Plexus had liabilities of US$1.64b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$185.7m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$345.1m and US$742.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$741.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
从最新的资产负债表数据来看,我们可以看到普雷克萨斯有16.4亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,18570万美元的负债在此之后到期。另一方面,它有34510万美元的现金和74290万美元的应收款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收款的总和多74100万美元。
Given Plexus has a market capitalization of US$4.50b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Plexus boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
考虑到普雷克萨斯的市值为45亿美元,很难相信这些负债会造成太大威胁。但负债确实足够,因此我们会建议股东继续关注资产负债表。尽管其负债不容小觑,普雷克萨斯仍然拥有净现金,所以可以说它并没有沉重的债务负担!
But the bad news is that Plexus has seen its EBIT plunge 14% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Plexus's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
但坏消息是,普雷克萨斯的息税前利润(EBIT)在过去的12个月内下降了14%。如果这种收益下降的速度继续下去,公司可能会陷入困境。分析债务时,资产负债表显然是重点。但未来的收益,远比其他任何因素,更能判断普雷克萨斯维持健康资产负债表的能力。所以如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,展示分析师的利润预测。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Plexus may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. In the last three years, Plexus's free cash flow amounted to 47% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
最后,一家公司只能用现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。普雷克萨斯在资产负债表上虽然有净现金,但查看业务将息税前利润(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力仍然很有趣,因为这将影响其需要和管理债务的能力。在过去的三年中,普雷克萨斯的自由现金流占其EBIT的47%,低于我们的预期。这样的现金转换能力较弱使得处理负债变得更困难。
Summing Up
总结
Although Plexus's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of US$141.3m. So we don't have any problem with Plexus's use of debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Plexus you should be aware of.
尽管普雷克萨斯的资产负债表并不是特别强劲,但由于其总负债,我们清楚地看到它拥有14130万美元的净现金。因此,我们对普雷克萨斯的债务使用没有任何问题。资产负债表显然是在分析债务时需要关注的领域。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。举个例子:我们发现普雷克萨斯有1个警示信号,你应该注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资那些能够在没有债务负担的情况下增长利润的业务,请查看这个自由名单,其中列出了在资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业。
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