We Think Western Superconducting Technologies (SHSE:688122) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Western Superconducting Technologies (SHSE:688122) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Western Superconducting Technologies Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688122) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
大卫·伊本曾很好地指出,'波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免永久性资本损失。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢观察其债务使用情况,因为债务负担过重可能导致破产。与许多其他公司一样,西部超导科技有限公司(SHSE:688122)也在使用债务。但更重要的问题是:这些债务带来了多少风险?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何时债务成为问题?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
当一家企业无法轻松履行这些义务时,债务和其他负债便会变得有风险,无论是通过自由现金流还是以吸引人的价格融资。资本主义的重要组成部分是'创造性破坏'的过程,在这个过程中,失败的企业被其银行毫不留情地清算。然而,更常见(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以廉价的股价稀释股东,仅仅是为了控制债务。当然,债务的好处在于,它通常代表了廉价资本,尤其是当它替代了能够以高回报率再投资的公司的稀释时。当我们考虑一家公司的债务使用情况时,我们首先将现金和债务放在一起分析。
How Much Debt Does Western Superconducting Technologies Carry?
西部超导科技的债务有多少?
As you can see below, Western Superconducting Technologies had CN¥2.64b of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had CN¥2.11b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥533.5m.
如您所见,西部超导科技在2024年9月的债务为26.4亿人民币,和前一年差不多。您可以点击图表获取更多详细信息。然而,它也有21.1亿人民币的现金,因此其净债务为53350万人民币。
A Look At Western Superconducting Technologies' Liabilities
看看西部超导的负债
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Western Superconducting Technologies had liabilities of CN¥4.26b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.34b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥2.11b as well as receivables valued at CN¥4.00b due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥513.6m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看到,西部超导有42.6亿人民币的负债在一年内到期,还有13.4亿人民币的负债在更长时间到期。抵消这些负债,它有21.1亿人民币的现金,以及价值40亿人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的流动资产比总负债多出51360万人民币。
Having regard to Western Superconducting Technologies' size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So it's very unlikely that the CN¥28.5b company is short on cash, but still worth keeping an eye on the balance sheet.
考虑到西部超导的规模,它的流动资产与其总负债相对平衡。因此,这家市值285亿人民币的公司不太可能短缺现金,但仍值得关注资产负债表。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了衡量一家公司相对于其收益的债务水平,我们计算其净负债与利息、税项、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及其利息和税项前利润(EBIT)与其利息支出(利息支付比率)的比率。因此,我们考虑了包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用的收益相对于债务的情况。
Western Superconducting Technologies has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.57. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 16.1 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On the other hand, Western Superconducting Technologies saw its EBIT drop by 7.3% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Western Superconducting Technologies can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
西部超导的净债务与EBITDA比率仅为0.57,较低。它的EBIT轻松覆盖了利息支出,比例为16.1倍。因此,我们对其非常保守的债务使用感到相当轻松。另一方面,西部超导的EBIT在过去12个月下降了7.3%。如果收益继续以这样的速度下降,公司可能会在管理债务负担方面面临越来越大的困难。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的大部分关于债务的知识。然而,最终业务的未来盈利能力将决定西部超导是否能够随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告非常有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Western Superconducting Technologies recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
但我们最后的考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要真金白银的现金。因此,合理的步骤是查看EBIT中与实际自由现金流相匹配的比例。在过去三年中,西部超导的自由现金流总计为负。对自由现金流不可靠的公司来说,债务风险更高,因此股东应该希望过去的支出能够在未来产生自由现金流。
Our View
我们的观点
On our analysis Western Superconducting Technologies's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. In particular, conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gives us cold feet. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Western Superconducting Technologies's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Western Superconducting Technologies that you should be aware of before investing here.
根据我们的分析,西部超导的利息覆盖率应该表明其债务问题不会太严重。但是,我们之前提到的其他因素却不那么令人鼓舞。尤其是,EBIT转化为自由现金流让我们有些不安。考虑到上述所有因素,我们对西部超导债务的使用感到有些谨慎。虽然债务在提高潜在回报方面确实有其好处,但我们认为股东们应该考虑债务水平如何让股票变得更具风险。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个好的起点。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。例如,我们发现了两条西部超导的警告信号,您应该在这里投资前了解一下。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
无论最终结果如何,有时候更容易关注那些根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以立即免费获取一份净债务为零的成长股列表。
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