Santa Claus Rally Is Facing Some 'Indigestion,' Says UBS Expert: 'The Market Is Basically Taking A Little Bit Of A Probably Well-Needed Pause'
Santa Claus Rally Is Facing Some 'Indigestion,' Says UBS Expert: 'The Market Is Basically Taking A Little Bit Of A Probably Well-Needed Pause'
Michael Zinn, a senior portfolio manager at UBS Global Wealth Management, has shared his perspective on the current market dynamics as the year draws to a close.
迈克尔·津恩,瑞银全球财富管理的高级投资组合经理,分享了他对当前市场动态的看法,因为这一年即将结束。
What Happened: Zinn remarked that the Santa Claus rally, which typically brings positive market momentum, is experiencing some pause following a significant post-election surge.
发生了什么:津恩提到,通常带来积极市场动量的圣诞老人行情在经历了大选后的显著激增后,正在稍作停顿。
"I think we are having a little bit of indigestion," Zinn said during CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday.
“我觉得我们有点消化不良,”津恩在周二的CNBC《亚洲开口秀》中说。
"We've just seen such a surge since the election you know people are so amped up over all the drivers that have played out so well this year that I think the market is basically taking a little bit of a probably well-needed pause um which makes some sense between now and year-end."
“我们自大选以来已经看到如此激增,你知道人们对于今年表现良好的所有驱动因素兴奋不已,所以我认为市场基本上在年底之前进行了一些可能是亟需的停顿,这在现在和年底之间是有道理的。”
He expressed concerns about the market's narrow breadth, noting that despite recent pullbacks, prices continue to rise, driven mainly by AI-focused stocks. This trend, he suggested, might persist into the next year.
他对市场的狭隘范围表达了担忧,指出尽管近期有所回调,但价格依然在上涨,主要由人工智能相关的股票驱动。他建议这一趋势可能会持续到明年。
Zinn highlighted that only about 40% of stocks in the S&P are trading above their 50-day moving average, even as indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ hit new highs. He pointed out that this is not a healthy combination and noted speculative behavior in options trading as a warning sign.
津恩强调,约有40%的股票在S&P 500中交易高于其50日移动平均线,即便像S&P和纳斯达克这样的指数创下新高。他指出,这并不是一个健康的组合,并提到期权交易中的投机行为是一个警示信号。
However, he remains optimistic about the market's long-term prospects, citing supportive factors such as AI advancements, a new administration, economic growth, and potential Federal Reserve easing.
然而,他对市场的长期前景仍持乐观态度,引用了一些支持因素,如人工智能进步、新的政府管理、经济增长以及潜在的美联储放松政策。
Why It Matters: The Santa Claus rally is a well-documented phenomenon where stock markets often see gains during the final week of December into the first two trading days of January.
为什么这很重要:圣诞老人行情是一种众所周知的现象,股市通常在12月的最后一周至1月的前两天交易中看到上涨。
Historically, this period has been favorable for investors, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs during the holiday season. However, this year's rally faces challenges, as indicated by Zinn's observations.
历史上,这个时期对投资者来说是有利的,标准普尔500指数在假期季节达到了历史最高点。然而,正如Zinn的观察所示,今年的反弹面临挑战。
Additionally, recent economic data suggests a robust holiday season, with November retail sales hitting an 11-month high, signaling strong consumer demand. This resilience in spending could potentially support market performance, despite the current "indigestion" in the rally.
此外,最近的经济数据表明假期季节强劲,11月份的零售销售达到了11个月的最高点,显示出强劲的消费需求。这种消费的韧性可能会支持市场表现,尽管目前的反弹面临 "消化不良 "。
Price Action: On Tuesday, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed 0.41% lower at $604.29 while Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed 0.44% lower at $535.80, as per Benzinga Pro data.
价格动态:周二,SPDR 标普500指数ETF(纽交所:SPY)收盘下跌0.41%,报604.29美元;而纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(纳斯达克:QQQ)收盘下跌0.44%,报535.80美元,根据Benzinga Pro的数据。
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免责声明:此内容部分由Benzinga Neuro生成,并由Benzinga编辑审核和发布。
Photo courtesy: Unsplash
照片提供:Unsplash