20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days
20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days
As markets brace for the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, scheduled at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday, Goldman Sachs highlighted 20 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have historically shown outsized moves around Fed decision days.
随着市场准备迎接美联储本年度最后一次政策会议，定于周三下午2点举行，高盛强调了20只在美联储决策日历史上表现出超大波动的可交易ETF。
While a 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.50% is widely anticipated, the market's focus is on the Fed's forward guidance, particularly the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the updated "dot plot."
尽管广泛预期将下调25个基点的目标区间至4.25%-4.50%，市场关注点在于美联储的前瞻指引，尤其是经济预测摘要（SEP）和更新的"点阵图"。
Following December's expected cut, Goldman Sachs projects a more measured pace of easing next year, forecasting rate cuts in March, June, and September, with the terminal rate seen at 3.50%-3.75%.
在预期12月降息后，高盛预测明年将采取更加审慎的放松步伐，尤其是在3月、6月和9月降息，终端利率预计在3.50%-3.75%。
Read Also: All Eyes On December Fed Meeting As Traders Await Interest Rate Projections
另见：所有目光集中在12月美联储会议上，交易员期待利率预测。
Market Dynamics Around Fed Days
美联储会议日期间的市场动态
U.S. equity markets have displayed strong short-term gains during Fed meeting weeks in 2024.
美国股市在2024年美联储会议周表现出强劲的短期收益。
Investors employing a simple strategy of buying the S&P 500 index at market close before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and selling at close the following day have captured median returns of 1.1% across the past seven meetings.
投资者采用一种简单的策略，即在美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）公告前，在市场收盘时买入标普500指数，并在第二天收盘时卖出，过去七次会议的媒体收益为1.1%。
Yet those extending the trade horizon to 15 sessions post-Fed meeting have enjoyed significantly larger average gains of 3.29%, more than double the short-term returns. Notably, every Fed meeting this year has resulted in positive 15-day returns.
然而，那些将交易时间延长至美联储会议后15个交易日的投资者获得了显著更大的平均收益，为3.29%，是短期回报的两倍多。值得注意的是，今年每次美联储会议后15天内均实现了正回报。
"We observe that U.S. banking ETFs, such as SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE), have seen unusually large moves on FOMC days since 2022" Goldman analysts wrote in a recent note.
"我们观察到，自2022年以来，美国银行类ETF，如SPDR银行指数ETF（纽约证券交易所：KBE）和SPDR区域银行ETF（纽约证券交易所：KRE），在FOMC会议日出现了异常大的波动"，高盛分析师在最近的一份报告中写道。
For bond-focused investors, the report highlights consistent post-meeting gains in high-yield and investment-grade ETFs like iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:HYG) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:LQD).
对于以债券为主的投资者，该报告强调了在会议后的高收益和投资级ETF（如债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债（纽约证券交易所：HYG）和债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债（纽约证券交易所：LQD））中持续获得收益的情况。
Meanwhile, energy-focused ETFs, such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), have seen negative reactions.
与此同时，以能源为主的ETF，如美国石油基金（纽约证券交易所：USO），则出现了负面反应。
ETFs Showing Heightened Fed-Day Moves
在联邦储备会议日出现激增波动的ETF
Here's Goldman Sachs' list of 20 ETFs with the largest absolute moves – which include both positive and negative swing – on FOMC days:
以下是高盛列出在FOMC会议日中波动幅度最大的20只ETF名单，包括正向和负向的波动：
| ETF Name | Focus | Average Absolute Move on FOMC since 2022 | Average Absolute Move (Last 3 FOMC events) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF | Regional Banking | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) | Semiconductor | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) | Semiconductor | 2.4% | 3.3% |
| SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE:KBE) | US Large Banks | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE:XBI) | Biotech | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| United States Oil Fund | Oil | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) | Technology | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) | Silver | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) | Nasdaq 100 | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLY) | Discretionary | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) | Russell 2000 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF) | Financial | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) | Gold | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:EMB) | EM Bond | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | HY Corp Bond | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | IG Corp Bond | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEF) | 7-10 Year Treasury | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP) | TIPS Bond | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Average | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| ETF名称 | 重点 | 自2022年以来FOMC会议日的平均绝对波动 | 最后三次FOMC事件的平均绝对波动 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR区域型银行ETF | 区域型银行 | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| 半导体指数ETF-VanEck (纳斯达克:SMH) | 半导体 | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| iShares费城交易所半导体ETF (纳斯达克:SOXX) | 半导体 | 2.4% | 3.3% |
| 银行指数ETF-SPDR (纽交所:KBE) | 美国大型银行 | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| SPDR标普生物科技ETF（纽交所：XBI） | 生物科技 | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| 美国原油基金 | 石油 | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| 科技板块ETF-SPDR (纽交所:XLK) | 科技 | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| 白银etf-ishares（纽交所：SLV） | 白银 | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| 纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust (纳斯达克:QQQ) | 纳斯达克100 | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 非必需消费类ETF-SPDR (纽交所:XLY) | 自由裁量的 | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| iShares罗素2000指数ETF (纽交所:IWM) | 罗素2000 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| SPDR 标普500指数ETF Trust (纽交所:SPY) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| 先锋标普500ETF (纽交所: VOO) | S&P 500 | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| SPDR金融行业ETF (纽交所: XLF) | 金融 | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| SPDR黄金ETF(纽交所:GLD) | 黄金 | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| 新兴市场美元债ETF-iShares(纳斯达克:EMB) | 债券型 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债 | 高收益公司债 | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债 | 投资级公司债 | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 美国国债7-10年ETF-iShares (纳斯达克:IEF) | 7-10年国债 | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 通胀债券指数ETF-iShares (纽交所:TIP) | 通胀债券 | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 平均 | 1.5% | 1.3% |
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