Pulling Back 6.5% This Week, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's SHSE:600618) Five-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus
Pulling Back 6.5% This Week, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's SHSE:600618) Five-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus
When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, long term Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600618) shareholders have enjoyed a 49% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 15% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 19% in the last year, including dividends.
当我们投资时,通常会寻找那些表现优于市场平均水平的股票。 事实上,如果以正确的价格购买高质量的业务,您可以获得显著的收益。 例如,长期持有氯碱B股(SHSE:600618)的股东在过去五年里享受了49%的股价上涨,远远超过了大约15%的市场回报(不包括分红派息)。 然而,更近期的回报并没有那么令人印象深刻,过去一年股票的回报仅为19%,包括分红派息。
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
虽然上周的表现影响了公司五年的回报,但让我们看看基础业务的最新趋势,看看收益是否与之相符。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
用巴菲特的话说,‘船会在世界各地航行,但平地社会将繁荣。市场上价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差异……’一种检查市场情绪如何随着时间变化的方法是观察公司的股价与每股收益(EPS)之间的互动。
Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's earnings per share are down 1.8% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
尽管在过去五年中股价表现强劲,氯碱B股的每股收益每年下降1.8%。
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.
通过观察这些数字,我们推测每股收益的下降并不代表业务多年来的变化。因此,值得查看其他指标以尝试理解股票价格的波动。
We doubt the modest 1.9% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. In contrast revenue growth of 5.3% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical is growing, a real positive. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
我们怀疑1.9%的分红派息收益率吸引了多少买家购买该股票。相比之下,5.3%的营业收入年增长率可能被视为氯碱B股在增长的证据,确实是一个积极信号。管理层目前可能更重视营业收入增长而非每股收益的增长。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下图像显示了公司的营业收入和盈利(随时间变化)(单击以查看准确的数字)。

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
资产负债表的强度至关重要。查看我们免费的报告,了解其财务状况如何随着时间变化,可能非常值得。
What About Dividends?
关于分红派息的问题
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical's TSR for the last 5 years was 66%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
考虑总股东回报以及任何给定股票的股价回报是很重要的。股价回报仅反映股价变化,而总股东回报则包含分红(假设已再投资)的价值以及任何折扣资本筹集或分拆的利益。因此,对于那些支付慷慨分红的公司来说,总股东回报往往远高于股价回报。实际上,氯碱B股过去5年的总股东回报为66%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。毫无疑问,分红支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异!
A Different Perspective
不同的视角
It's good to see that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 19% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 11% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
很高兴看到氯碱B股在过去十二个月中回馈股东,整体股东回报达到了19%。并且这还包括分红派息。由于一年的总股东回报率优于五年的总股东回报率(后者为每年11%),看来这只股票近期的表现有所改善。鉴于股价动能依然强劲,可能值得更仔细地关注这只股票,以免错失机会。虽然考虑市场条件对股价的不同影响非常重要,但还有其他因素更为关键。尽管如此,需注意氯碱B股在我们的投资分析中显示出1个警告信号,你应该了解...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
当然,你可能会通过其他地方寻找一个绝佳的投资机会。所以请查看这个我们预计将增长每股收益的公司免费列表。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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