Daqin Railway (SHSE:601006) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Daqin Railway (SHSE:601006) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601006) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
传奇基金经理李录(查理·芒格支持的人)曾经说过:'最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多风险时,我们总是喜欢查看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过重可能会导致破产。我们可以看到,大秦铁路有限公司(SHSE:601006)确实在其业务中使用债务。但这笔债务是否对股东构成担忧呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何时债务成为问题?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务会在企业能够偿还时对其有帮助,无论是通过新资本还是自由现金流。最终,如果公司无法履行其偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所获。然而,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低价发行股票,从而永久稀释股东的权益,仅仅是为了稳住其资产负债表。当然,债务可以是企业中的一个重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。在考虑一个企业使用多少债务时,首先要查看其现金和债务的结合情况。
What Is Daqin Railway's Debt?
大秦铁路的债务是什么?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Daqin Railway had CN¥22.5b of debt in September 2024, down from CN¥39.6b, one year before. But it also has CN¥63.2b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥40.7b net cash.
您可以点击下面的图表查看历史数据,但它显示大秦铁路在2024年9月的债务为225亿人民币,较一年前的396亿人民币有所下降。但它同时拥有632亿人民币的现金来抵消这笔债务,意味着它有407亿人民币的净现金。
How Healthy Is Daqin Railway's Balance Sheet?
大秦铁路的资产负债表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Daqin Railway had liabilities of CN¥14.8b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥24.3b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥63.2b as well as receivables valued at CN¥15.7b due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥39.7b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
我们可以从最新的资产负债表看到,大秦铁路有148亿人民币的短期负债和243亿人民币的长期负债。为了抵消这些义务,它有632亿人民币的现金以及价值157亿人民币的应收账款,预计在12个月内到期。因此,它的流动资产比总负债多出397亿人民币。
This surplus strongly suggests that Daqin Railway has a rock-solid balance sheet (and the debt is of no concern whatsoever). On this view, lenders should feel as safe as the beloved of a black-belt karate master. Simply put, the fact that Daqin Railway has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
这一盈余强烈暗示大秦铁路有着坚如磐石的资产负债表(债务根本不成问题)。从这一角度看,借款人应该和黑带空手道大师的爱人一样感到安全。简单来说,大秦铁路的现金多于债务,这无疑是它能够安全管理债务的一个良好迹象。
On the other hand, Daqin Railway's EBIT dived 19%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Daqin Railway's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
另一方面,大秦铁路的息税前利润(EBIT)在过去一年中下降了19%。我们认为,如果这种表现频繁出现,可能会导致该股票面临困境。当分析债务时,资产负债表显然是关注的重点。但实际上,未来的收益,尤其是将决定大秦铁路未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Daqin Railway has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Daqin Railway produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 56% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
但我们的最终考虑也很重要,因为公司不能用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要现金。尽管大秦铁路在其资产负债表上有净现金,但仍然值得关注它将息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们理解它是多快在建立(或侵蚀)现金余额。在过去三年中,大秦铁路产生了强劲的自由现金流,约占其EBIT的56%,这大致是我们所期望的。这一自由现金流使公司在适当的时候有良好的位置偿还债务。
Summing Up
总结
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Daqin Railway has CN¥40.7b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we don't have any problem with Daqin Railway's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Daqin Railway (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
虽然了解公司的债务情况总是明智的,但在这种情况下,大秦铁路拥有407亿人民币的净现金和相对不错的资产负债表。 因此,我们对大秦铁路使用债务没有任何问题。 在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。然而,并非所有的投资风险都在资产负债表内——远不是如此。 我们已经识别出大秦铁路的2个警告信号(至少1个是潜在的严重风险),理解这些信号应该成为您投资过程的一部分。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果你是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来发现我们独家的净现金成长股票列表。
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