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Mohamed El-Erian Warns Fed Faces 'Bigger Problem' As Diverging Views On Rate Policy Highlight Lack Of 'Strategic Anchoring'

Mohamed El-Erian Warns Fed Faces 'Bigger Problem' As Diverging Views On Rate Policy Highlight Lack Of 'Strategic Anchoring'

穆罕默德·埃尔-艾利安警告称,美联储面临着“更大的问题”,因为对利率政策的不同看法突显出缺乏“战略锚定”
Benzinga ·  13:38

A significant disparity in Federal Reserve officials' views on future interest rate policy points to deeper strategic challenges that could impact markets through 2025, according to prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian.

根据著名经济学家穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安(Mohamed El-Erian)的观点,美联储官员对未来利率政策的看法存在显著差异,这表明可能面临更深层次的战略挑战,这可能会影响到2025年的市场。

What Happened: El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, highlighted the notable divergence in Fed officials' rate projections shown in the central bank's latest "dot plot" released after its December meeting.

发生了什么:埃尔-埃里安,安联(Allianz)的首席经济顾问,强调了美联储官员在其12月会议后发布的最新"点图"中关于利率预测的显著分歧。

"This is part of a bigger problem — namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy formulation," El-Erian wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

埃尔-埃里安在X(前身为推特)上写道:“这部分是一个更大问题——即政策制定过程中持续缺乏战略锚定。”

As shown in the Federal Reserve's latest "dot plot" (below), there is a notable dispersion in views among Fed officials regarding how the policy rate will evolve from here.
This is part of a bigger problem — namely, the consistent absence of a strategic anchoring for policy... pic.twitter.com/ojcoXyUrAe

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 18, 2024

如美联储最新的"点图"所示(见下文),美联储官员对于政策利率将如何演变存在显著分歧。
这部分是一个更大问题——即政策... pic.twitter.com/ojcoXyUrAe

-穆罕默德·A·埃尔-埃里安(@elerianm)2024年12月18日

The Fed's latest projections show officials expect the federal funds rate to decline to around 3.5% by the end of 2025, down from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. However, individual forecasts among Federal Open Market Committee members vary significantly, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts.

美联储最新的预测显示,官员们预计到2025年底联邦基金利率将降至约3.5%,低于目前4.25%-4.5%的区间。然而,联邦公开市场委员会成员之间的个别预测存在显著差异,反映出对降息速度的不确定性。

Why It Matters: This divergence comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals a more cautious approach to monetary policy. During Wednesday's press conference, Powell emphasized entering a "new phase" with slower, more deliberate rate adjustments ahead.

重要性:这种分歧发生在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)暗示对货币政策采取更谨慎的态度之际。在周三的新闻发布会上,鲍威尔强调,将进入一个"新阶段",未来将采取更缓慢、更谨慎的利率调整。

Market reactions underscored investors' concerns about the Fed's strategic direction. The S&P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) tumbled 2.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 3.5%. The U.S. dollar index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) surged 1.2% to levels not seen since November 2022.

市场反应突显了投资者对美联储战略方向的担忧。标普500指数——由SPDR 标普500指数ETF Trust (纽交所:SPY) 跟踪,暴跌2.6%,而以科技股为主的纳斯达克下跌了3.5%。由景顺Db 美元指数看好基金ETF (纽交所:UUP) 跟踪的美元指数飙升1.2%,达到自2022年11月以来的最高水平。

The dispersion in Fed views is particularly significant given persistent inflation challenges. Despite three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024, core PCE inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with officials now projecting 2.5% inflation through 2025.

美联储观点的分歧尤其显著,因为通胀挑战持续存在。尽管2024年总共降息100个基点,但核心个人消费支出(PCE)通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标,官员们现在预测2025年通胀将达到2.5%。

El-Erian warned in his recent Bloomberg Opinion column that this policy uncertainty could have meaningful implications during the first half of 2025, potentially affecting both U.S. economic performance and market stability.

埃尔-埃里安在最近的彭博社观点专栏中警告称,这种政策不确定性可能在2025年上半年产生重大影响,可能会影响美国的经济表现和市场稳定。

Image via Federal Reserve

图片来自美联储

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