Malaysia's Export Performance Expected To Remain Positive Amid Global Uncertainties
Malaysia's Export Performance Expected To Remain Positive Amid Global Uncertainties
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, in its separate note, suggested that Malaysia's external trade outlook remains positive due to the ongoing global recovery and the technology upcycle, coupled with easing monetary policies in the second half of 2024. The bank projected export growth of 5.3% in 2025 (compared to +5.0% in 2024) and a 5.6% increase in imports (compared to +12.8% in 2024), with GDP growth expected to reach 5%. Despite potential tariff challenges from US protectionist policies, CIMB emphasised that Malaysia's strategic location, advanced trade infrastructure, and proactive policies position the country well in a changing global trade environment.Malaysia's export performance is anticipated to stay on an upward trajectory, supported by the country's neutral stance and diversified export structure. Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd highlighted that this growth is driven by front-loading orders in anticipation of potential trade conflicts and the ongoing global demand for electrical and electronics products.
马来西亚的出口表现预计将持续上升，得益于该国的中立立场和多元化的出口结构。宏利投资银行指出，这一增长是由于前置订单的推动，以应对潜在的交易冲突以及持续的全球对电气和电子产品的需求。
However, the bank noted that trade policy uncertainties could dampen the global trade outlook. As a result, it has maintained its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts at 5.0% year-on-year (YoY) for 2024, with a slight dip to +4.9% YoY for 2025.
然而，银行指出，贸易政策的不确定性可能会抑制全球交易展望。因此，它将2024年的国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测维持在5.0%的同比增长（YoY），并预计2025年略降至4.9%的同比增长。
According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), Malaysia's total trade in November grew by 2.9%, reaching RM237.8 billion compared to RM231.1 billion a year earlier. This growth was primarily driven by increases in both exports and imports. Exports rose by 4.1% to RM126.6 billion, while imports grew by 1.6% to RM111.3 billion. The trade surplus surged by 26.3% to RM15.3 billion, marking the 55th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020.
根据马来西亚统计局（DOSM）的数据显示，马来西亚11月份的总交易增长了2.9%，达到了2378亿令吉，与去年同期的2311亿令吉相比，这一增长主要得益于出口和进口的增加。出口增长了4.1%，达1266亿令吉，而进口增长了1.6%，达1113亿令吉。贸易顺差激增26.3%，达153亿令吉，自2020年5月以来已连续第55个月保持顺差。
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, in its separate note, suggested that Malaysia's external trade outlook remains positive due to the ongoing global recovery and the technology upcycle, coupled with easing monetary policies in the second half of 2024. The bank projected export growth of 5.3% in 2025 (compared to +5.0% in 2024) and a 5.6% increase in imports (compared to +12.8% in 2024), with GDP growth expected to reach 5%. Despite potential tariff challenges from US protectionist policies, CIMB emphasised that Malaysia's strategic location, advanced trade infrastructure, and proactive policies position the country well in a changing global trade environment.
CIMb投资银行在其单独的报告中建议，由于全球复苏和科技行业的上升周期，加上2024年下半年货币政策的放松，马来西亚的外贸展望仍然乐观。该银行预计2025年的出口增长为5.3%（相比2024年的+5.0%），进口增长为5.6%（相比2024年的+12.8%），预计GDP增长将达到5%。尽管面临来自美国保护主义政策的潜在关税挑战，CIMb强调马来西亚的战略位置、先进的交易基础设施以及积极的政策使该国在变化的全球贸易环境中处于良好位置。
Maybank Investment Bank Bhd echoed this outlook, noting that the growth in exports and imports would ease concerns over the current account balance for the fourth quarter of 2024, after two quarters of a modest surplus. For the 11 months of 2024, Maybank reported that exports and imports grew by 4.7% and 13.3%, respectively, leading to a trade surplus of RM117.9 billion.
马来银行投资银行也呼应了这一展望，指出出口和进口的增长将减轻2024年第四季度当前账户余额的担忧，此前的两个季度出现了适度的顺差。在2024年的11个月中，马来银行报告称，出口和进口分别增长了4.7%和13.3%，导致贸易顺差为1179亿令吉。
Looking ahead to 2025, the bank cautioned that uncertainties surrounding US trade and tariff policies, particularly under a potential second term of former President Donald Trump, may result in slower growth for both exports and imports. Maybank forecasted export growth of +4.5%, import growth of +6.3%, and a lower trade surplus of RM112 billion.
展望2025年，银行警告称，围绕美国贸易和关税政策的不确定性，特别是在前总统特朗普可能的第二个任期下，可能导致出口和进口增长放缓。马来亚银行预测出口增长为4.5%，进口增长为6.3%，贸易顺差降低至RM1120亿。
