Lumen Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:LUMN) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 29% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been very strong. Like an eagle, the share price soared 249% in that time. So some might not be surprised to see the price retrace some. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.

In light of the stock dropping 11% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.

Lumen Technologies isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last year Lumen Technologies saw its revenue shrink by 10%. So we would not have expected the share price to rise 249%. This is a good example of how buyers can push up prices even before the fundamental metrics show much growth. Of course, it could be that the market expected this revenue drop.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Lumen Technologies has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 249% in the last twelve months. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 8% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Lumen Technologies , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.