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We Think Hershey (NYSE:HSY) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Hershey (NYSE:HSY) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我们认为好时(纽交所:HSY)可以保持其债务的优势
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/19 23:43

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

传奇基金经理李路(查理·芒格支持)曾说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。” 所以,聪明的钱知道,债务——通常与破产有关——是评估公司风险时一个非常重要的因素。我们注意到,好时公司(纽交所:HSY)的资产负债表上确实有债务。那么,股东是否应该担心它的债务使用?

When Is Debt A Problem?

何时债务成为问题?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

一般来说,债务只有在公司无法轻松偿还时才会成为真正的问题,要么通过融资要么通过自身的自由现金流。最终,如果公司无法履行其法律义务还债,股东可能会一无所获。虽然这种情况并不常见,但我们确实经常看到负债累累的公司由于贷方迫使他们以低价融资而永久稀释股东权益。不过,通过替代稀释,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率投资于增长的企业的一个极好的工具。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,首先要查看其现金和债务的组合。

How Much Debt Does Hershey Carry?

好时公司负债有多少?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, Hershey had US$5.22b of debt, up from US$4.84b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have US$615.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$4.60b.

如您所见,在2024年9月底,好时公司的债务达到52.2亿美金,高于一年前的48.4亿美金。点击图片获取更多详情。不过,它有61500万的现金抵消这部分债务,导致净债务约为46亿美金。

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NYSE:HSY Debt to Equity History December 19th 2024
纽交所:HSY 债务与股本历史 2024年12月19日

How Strong Is Hershey's Balance Sheet?

好时的资产负债表有多强?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Hershey had liabilities of US$4.20b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$4.22b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$615.0m in cash and US$1.14b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$6.66b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

根据最近报告的资产负债表,好时有42亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,以及42.2亿美元的负债在12个月后到期。相抵的是,它有61500万美元的现金和11.4亿美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出66.6亿美元。

Given Hershey has a humongous market capitalization of US$35.9b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

考虑到好时拥有359亿美元的巨额市值,很难相信这些负债会构成多大的威胁。话虽如此,显然我们应该继续监控其资产负债表,以防其情况恶化。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

我们通过查看公司的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比例来衡量公司相对于其收益能力的债务负担,以及计算其息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖利息支出的能力(利息覆盖率)。因此,我们在考虑收益时同时考虑了折旧与摊销费用及不考虑这些费用的情况。

We'd say that Hershey's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.6), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 15.3 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. But the other side of the story is that Hershey saw its EBIT decline by 3.4% over the last year. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Hershey can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

我们认为好时适度的净债务与EBITDA比率(为1.6)表明在债务方面的谨慎。而其EBIT是利息支出的15.3倍,意味着债务负担如孔雀羽毛般轻。但事情的另一面是好时在过去一年中EBIT下降了3.4%。如果这种下降持续下去,显然会使债务更难处理。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个明确的起点。但最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定好时是否能够随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想了解专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份有关分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Hershey recorded free cash flow worth 69% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,虽然税务机关可能喜欢会计利润,但贷方只接受冷硬现金。因此,检查这些EBIT有多少是由自由现金流支持的非常重要。在最近三年中,好时记录的自由现金流占其EBIT的69%,这一比例大约是正常的,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税。这些自由现金流使公司在适当时能够很好地偿还债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Happily, Hershey's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its EBIT growth rate. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Hershey can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Hershey has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

令人欣慰的是,好时的出色利息覆盖比率意味着它在债务方面占据优势。 但从更严肃的角度来看,我们对它的EBIT增长率有些担忧。 看看所有上述因素,我们认为好时可以相对轻松地应对其债务。 从积极的方面来看,这种杠杆可以提升股东回报,但潜在的 downside 是更高的损失风险,因此监控资产负债表是值得的。 毋庸置疑,我们对债务的了解大多来自资产负债表。 但最终,每个公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。 例如 - 好时有 1 个我们认为您应该注意的警示信号。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

最终,通常更好的是关注没有净负债的公司。你可以访问我们特别列出这些公司的名单(所有公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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