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Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About BorgWarner Inc. (NYSE:BWA)?

Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About BorgWarner Inc. (NYSE:BWA)?

股价下跌与良好的财务状况:市场对博格华纳公司(纽交所:BWA)是否判断错误?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/22 20:06

It is hard to get excited after looking at BorgWarner's (NYSE:BWA) recent performance, when its stock has declined 7.2% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Particularly, we will be paying attention to BorgWarner's ROE today.

在查看博格华纳(纽交所:BWA)最近的表现后,很难感到兴奋,因为其股票在过去三个月中下跌了7.2%。但是如果你仔细观察,你会发现其关键的财务指标看起来相当不错,这可能意味着该股票在长期内有潜在上涨的可能性,因为市场通常会奖励更具韧性的长期基本面。尤其是,我们今天将关注博格华纳的ROE。

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

净资产收益率(ROE)是评估公司管理层如何有效利用公司资本的关键指标。简单来说,它衡量了公司相对于股东权益的盈利能力。

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

如何计算股本回报率?

The formula for ROE is:

roe的公式是:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

股东权益回报率 = 净利润(来自持续运营)÷ 股东权益

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for BorgWarner is:

因此,根据上述公式,博格华纳的ROE为:

15% = US$984m ÷ US$6.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

15% = 98400万美元 ÷ 64亿美元(基于截至2024年9月的过去十二个月)。

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.15 in profit.

“回报”是指公司过去一年的收益。另一个理解方式是,对于每1美元的股权,公司能够赚取0.15美元的利润。

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

roe与盈利增长有何关系?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

我们已经确定,ROE是公司未来收益的一种有效利润生成指标。现在,我们需要评估公司 reinvests 或 "保留" 多少利润以实现未来增长,这将给我们一个关于公司增长潜力的概念。在其他条件相同的情况下,拥有更高净资产收益率和更高利润保留的公司通常与没有相同特征的公司相比,具有更高的增长率。

BorgWarner's Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

博格华纳的盈利增长和15%的ROE

To start with, BorgWarner's ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 11%. Yet, BorgWarner has posted measly growth of 4.8% over the past five years. This is interesting as the high returns should mean that the company has the ability to generate high growth but for some reason, it hasn't been able to do so. A few likely reasons why this could happen is that the company could have a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

首先,博格华纳的ROE看起来是可接受的。此外,该公司的ROE与行业平均水平11%相比表现相当良好。然而,博格华纳在过去五年中仅实现了4.8%的微弱增长。这很有趣,因为高回报意味着公司有能力产生高增长,但出于某种原因,它未能做到这一点。导致这种情况发生的一些可能原因是公司可能有较高的分红派息比率,或者业务的资本配置不当。

As a next step, we compared BorgWarner's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 14% in the same period.

作为下一步,我们将博格华纳的净利润增长与行业进行了比较,结果令人失望地看到该公司的增长低于同期行业平均增长14%。

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NYSE:BWA Past Earnings Growth December 22nd 2024
纽交所:BWA 过去的盈利增长 2024年12月22日

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is BorgWarner fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

对公司的估值基础在很大程度上与其盈利增长相关。投资者应该尝试确定预期的盈利增长或下降,无论是哪种情况,是否已被市场定价。通过这样做,他们将对股票是否前景光明还是面临困境有一个了解。博格华纳与其他公司相比是否被合理估值?这三项估值指标可能会帮助你做出决定。

Is BorgWarner Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

博格华纳是否有效利用其利润?

A low three-year median payout ratio of 22% (implying that the company retains the remaining 78% of its income) suggests that BorgWarner is retaining most of its profits. This should be reflected in its earnings growth number, but that's not the case. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

低至22%的三年中位支付比例(意味着公司保留了剩余的78%的收入)表明博格华纳在保留大部分利润。这应该体现在其盈利增长数字上,但事实并非如此。因此在这方面可能有其他解释。例如,公司的业务可能在恶化。

Moreover, BorgWarner has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 10.0% over the next three years. Despite the lower expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.

此外,博格华纳已连续支付分红至少十年,表明管理层必须意识到股东更喜欢分红而不是盈利增长。我们最新的分析师数据表明,未来三年公司的支付比例预计将下降至10.0%。尽管预期支付比例下降,但公司的ROE预计不会有太大变化。

Conclusion

结论

In total, it does look like BorgWarner has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

总体来看,博格华纳的业务似乎有一些积极的方面。 然而,低收益增长让人有些担忧,特别是考虑到公司拥有较高的回报率,并且正在将巨额利润再投资。从表面上看,可能有一些其他因素,而不一定是业务控制范围内的,阻碍了增长。 在研究当前分析师的估计时,我们发现分析师预计公司将继续近期的增长势头。 要了解更多关于公司未来收益增长预测的信息,请查看关于公司分析师预测的免费报告,以获取更多信息。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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