TSLA Stock Valuation Duel: Dan Ives Bets Big On Robotaxis While Gary Black Plays It Safe
TSLA Stock Valuation Duel: Dan Ives Bets Big On Robotaxis While Gary Black Plays It Safe
In contrast, Black, Managing Partner at Leading Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) analysts Dan Ives and Gary Black revealed stark differences in their valuation approaches during a recent "Brighter with Herbert" show appearance, even as both remain bullish on the electric vehicle maker's prospects.
特斯拉公司（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的主要分析师丹·艾夫斯和加里·布莱克在最近的 “Brighter with Herbert” 展会上透露了估值方法的明显差异，尽管他们都仍然看好这家电动汽车制造商的前景。
What Happened: Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, maintains the Street's highest price target of $515 with a bull case of $650, citing potential revenues from autonomous robotaxis and the company's Optimus robot project. He projects Tesla's earnings at $15 per share by 2030.
发生了什么：Wedbush Securities董事总经理艾夫斯将华尔街的最高目标股价维持在515美元，牛市为650美元，理由是自动驾驶机器人出租车和该公司擎天柱机器人项目的潜在收入。他预计，到2030年，特斯拉的每股收益为15美元。
"The Tesla story changes because everything we looked at with robotaxi gets accelerated," Ives said, estimating autonomous vehicles could capture 20% of ride-shares by decade's end. He values Tesla's autonomous business alone at $1 trillion.
艾夫斯说：“特斯拉的故事发生了变化，因为我们在机器人出租车上所看到的一切都得到了加速。” 他估计，到十年末，自动驾驶汽车可能会占据20％的乘车份额。他估计，仅特斯拉的自动驾驶业务就达到1万亿美元。
In contrast, Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, takes a more conservative approach with a $380 target, well above the Street average of $275. Black forecasts $17 earnings per share by 2030 but excludes robotaxi and Optimus revenue from his calculations.
相比之下，未来基金有限责任公司的管理合伙人布莱克采取了更为保守的态度，目标为380美元，远高于华尔街275美元的平均水平。布莱克预测到2030年每股收益为17美元，但在他的计算中不包括机器人出租车和擎天柱的收入。
"Even if I assume Tesla took 25% of ride-sharing market share, that only adds about a dollar per share in earnings," Black explained, noting his use of higher risk adjustments in Tesla's valuation given its volatility.
布莱克解释说：“即使我假设特斯拉占据了拼车市场份额的25％，也只能增加大约一美元的每股收益。” 他指出，鉴于特斯拉的波动性，他在特斯拉的估值中使用了更高的风险调整。
Why It Matters: The valuation debate comes as Tesla's stock has surged nearly 71% year-to-date, recently crossing the symbolic $420 level that CEO Elon Musk referenced in his controversial 2018 "funding secured" tweet. Morgan Stanley has named Tesla its top stock pick for 2025, citing the company's advances in autonomy and robotics.
为何重要：估值争论发生之际，特斯拉的股票今年迄今已飙升近71％，最近突破了首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在备受争议的2018年 “资金有保障” 推文中提到的420美元象征性水平。摩根士丹利将特斯拉列为2025年的首选股票，理由是该公司在自动驾驶和机器人技术方面的进步。
Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 7, 2018
我正在考虑以420美元的价格将特斯拉私有化。资金有保障。
— 埃隆·马斯克 (@elonmusk) 2018 年 8 月 7 日
Both analysts expressed optimism about Tesla's planned entry into the compact car segment, with Black suggesting a $25,000-$30,000 hatchback could expand Tesla's market reach similar to how the Model Y boosted its presence in the crossover segment.
两位分析师都对特斯拉计划进入紧凑型汽车领域表示乐观，布莱克表示，一辆价值25,000至3万美元的掀背车可以扩大特斯拉的市场覆盖范围，就像Model Y扩大其在跨界车领域的影响力一样。
Tesla has a consensus target of $280.41 from 33 analysts, according to data from Benzinga Pro. The high is $515, and the low is $24.86. Recent ratings from Baird, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs give an average target of $446.67, implying a 3.05% upside.
根据Benzinga Pro的数据，特斯拉将33位分析师的共识目标定为280.41美元。最高价为515美元，最低价为24.86美元。贝尔德、瑞穗和高盛最近的评级给出的平均目标为446.67美元，这意味着上涨幅度为3.05％。
Year-to-date, the Tesla stock has gained 69.50%.
今年迄今为止，特斯拉股票已上涨69.50％。
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