History Suggests S&P 500 Could Struggle In 2025, But There's Reason For Optimism
History Suggests S&P 500 Could Struggle In 2025, But There's Reason For Optimism
Data from Seasonax reveals that while the median return for the index in these years stands at 8.44%, the probability of positive performance—captured by a 58.33% winning ratio—barely tips the scales in favor of gains.Could 2025 mark a sluggish year for the S&P 500? Historical data suggests that investors may need to tread cautiously, especially given the patterns tied to the first year of a U.S. presidential term.
2025年会是S&P 500的一个疲软年吗？历史数据表明，投资者可能需要小心行事，特别是考虑到与美国总统任期第一年相关的模式。
An analysis of market performance dating back to 1928 shows that the S&P 500's average returns during the inaugural year of a presidency have lagged behind its typical performance—particularly under Republican administrations.
对市场表现的分析追溯到1928年，显示在总统任期的首年，S&P 500的平均回报落后于其典型表现，尤其是在共和党执政期间。
Historical Data Highlights First Year Struggles
历史数据突显了第一年的挣扎
The first year of a U.S. presidential term has historically been marked by volatility in the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – with performance oscillating between striking gains and painful losses.
美国总统任期的第一年历来伴随着S&P 500的波动—根据SPDR 标普500指数ETF Trust（NYSE:SPY）的追踪，其表现在显著的收益和痛苦的损失之间波动。
Data from Seasonax reveals that while the median return for the index in these years stands at 8.44%, the probability of positive performance—captured by a 58.33% winning ratio—barely tips the scales in favor of gains.
来自Seasonax的数据揭示，在这些年份中，指数的中位回报率为8.44%，而正表现的概率—由58.33%的胜率捕捉—勉强倾向于收益。
For comparison, in an average year since 1928, the S&P 500 has delivered a median return of 11%, with 67.37% of those years ending in positive territory.
相比之下，自1928年以来的平均年度，S&P 500的中位回报率为11%，其中67.37%的年份以正面结果结束。
"In year 1 of a US presidential cycle, the average SPX trend has tended to struggle from mid-January through April, rallied into the summer, and declined into year-end," wrote Bank of America analyst Paul Ciana in a note published Monday.
“在美国总统周期的第一年，平均SPX趋势往往从1月中旬到4月表现挣扎，随后在夏季反弹，年末下滑，”美国银行分析师保罗·基亚纳在周一发布的一份报告中写道。
Also Read: Palantir Vs. Lockheed: A Tech-Fueled Showdown In The $850 Billion Defense Market
另请阅读：Palantir与洛克希德：在8500亿军工股市场中的科技对决
The Republican And Q1 Effects
共和党及第一季度的影响
The median return during Republican first years is -10.11%, and the winning ratio drops to 36.36%, highlighting the increased likelihood of losses.
共和党第一年的中位回报为-10.11%，赢得比例下降至36.36%，突显出亏损的可能性增加。
The early months of a presidential year have also been tough for markets. From inauguration in late January to the end of March, the S&P 500's median return is -0.09%, with gains recorded only 50% of the time.
总统任年的早期几个月对市场来说也很艰难。从1月底的就职典礼到3月底，S&P 500的中位回报为-0.09%，仅有50%的时间录得收益。
Trump 2017: An Exception to the Rule
特朗普2017年：规则的例外
President-elect Donald Trump's first year in 2017 bucked these historical trends, delivering exceptional market performance.
特朗普当选总统的第一年2017年打破了这些历史趋势，实现了卓越的市场表现。
From his inauguration to the end of March, the S&P 500 gained 4.2%, outperforming historical averages for both first presidential years and Republican presidencies. By year-end, the index had surged 19.40%, marking a robust first-year performance.
从他就职到3月底，S&P 500上涨了4.2%，超出了历史上首次总统任期及共和党总统的平均水平。到年末，指数飙升至19.40%，标志着坚实的第一年表现。
| Metric | Normal Year (1928-2023) | First Presidential Year | First Republican Presidential Year | Trump 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Annual Return | +11.00% | +8.44% | -10.11% | +19.40% |
| Winning Annual Trades (%) | 67.37% | 58.33% | 36.36% | |
| Max Annual Gain | +48.02% | +48.02% | +30.65% | +19.40% |
| Max Annual Loss | -48.77% | -37.68% | -18.09% | 0.00% |
| Median Return (Inauguration-end Q1) | +1.68% | -4.99% | +0.08% | +4.20% |
| Winning trades (Inauguration-end Q1) | 63.54% | 50% | 54.55% |
| 指标 | 正常年份（1928-2023） | 首个总统任年 | 首个共和党总统任年 | 特朗普2017年 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 中位年回报率 | +11.00% | +8.44% | -10.11% | +19.40% |
| 年胜率 (%) | 67.37% | 58.33% | 36.36% | |
| 最大年度收益 | +48.02% | +48.02% | +30.65% | +19.40% |
| 最大年度损失 | -48.77% | -37.68% | -18.09% | 0.00% |
| 中位回报（就职典礼至第一季度末） | +1.68% | -4.99% | +0.08% | +4.20% |
| 盈利交易（就职典礼至第一季度末） | 63.54% | 50% | 54.55% |
- Tariffs Or More Energy: Analyst Warns Of High Costs, Limited Capacity If Europe Bows To Trump's LNG Push
- 关税还是更多能源：分析师警告如果欧洲屈服于特朗普的液化天然气推送，将面临高成本和有限的产能。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
