Is Antero Midstream (NYSE:AM) A Risky Investment?
Is Antero Midstream (NYSE:AM) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Antero Midstream Corporation (NYSE:AM) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
大卫·伊本说得很好:'波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多风险时,我们总是喜欢查看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过载可能导致破产。我们注意到,Antero Midstream Corporation(纽交所:AM)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心它的债务使用?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时会变得危险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还其债权人,那它就处于他们的摆布之中。在最糟糕的情况下,如果公司无法偿还债务,就可能破产。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是必须在低价时筹集新的股本,从而永久性稀释股东。当然,债务的好处是,它往往代表着廉价资本,尤其是当它取代一家能够以高回报率再投资的公司的稀释时。在考虑一个企业使用多少债务时,首先要做的就是将其现金和债务一起考虑。
What Is Antero Midstream's Debt?
Antero Midstream的债务是多少?
As you can see below, Antero Midstream had US$3.17b of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
正如你在下面看到的,Antero Midstream在2024年9月的债务为31.7亿美元,与前一年大致相同。你可以点击图表查看更详细的信息。净债务大致相同,因为它几乎没有现金。
A Look At Antero Midstream's Liabilities
看一下Antero Midstream的负债情况
According to the last reported balance sheet, Antero Midstream had liabilities of US$91.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$3.56b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$26.1m and US$98.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$3.52b.
根据最后一次报告的资产负债表,Antero Midstream有9150万美元的负债在12个月内到期,以及35.6亿美元的负债在12个月之后到期。另一方面,它有2610万美元的现金和9860万美元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债超过了其现金和(短期)应收账款的总和,达到了35.2亿美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because Antero Midstream is worth US$7.22b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
这个赤字并不是那么糟糕,因为Antero Midstream的价值为72.2亿美元,因此如果有需要,它很可能能够筹集足够的资本来支撑其资产负债表。然而,仔细查看其偿债能力仍然是值得的。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们使用两个主要比率来了解相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净债务除以息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA),而第二个是它的息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出的次数(或者简称为利息覆盖率)。这样,我们同时考虑债务的绝对数量以及所支付的利率。
Antero Midstream has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.1 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. The good news is that Antero Midstream improved its EBIT by 5.3% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Antero Midstream's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Antero Midstream的负债与EBITDA比率为3.7,它的EBIT覆盖了利息支出3.1倍。这表明尽管负债水平显著,但我们不至于称其为有问题的好消息是,Antero Midstream在过去的十二个月中将EBIT提高了5.3%,从而逐步降低了其相对于收益的负债水平。在分析负债水平时,资产负债表显然是一个明显的起点。但无论如何,未来的收益将决定Antero Midstream是否能够维持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会对这份关于分析师利润预测的自由报告感兴趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Antero Midstream produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 72% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
最后,业务需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本不足。因此,我们总是会检查多少EBIT转化为自由现金流。在过去的三年中,Antero Midstream产生了强劲的自由现金流,占其EBIT的72%,这大约是我们所期望的。这种自由现金流让公司在适当的时候能够很好地偿还债务。
Our View
我们的观点
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Antero Midstream was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to cover its interest expense with its EBIT. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Antero Midstream's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Antero Midstream that you should be aware of before investing here.
当谈到资产负债表时,Antero Midstream的一个突出积极因素是,它似乎能够自信地将EBIT转换为自由现金流。但我们上面提到的其他因素并不那么令人鼓舞。例如,它似乎必须在用EBIT覆盖利息费用上稍显吃力。当我们考虑上述所有因素时,我们确实对Antero Midstream的债务使用感到有些谨慎。虽然我们欣赏债务可以增强股本回报,但我们建议股东密切关注其债务水平,以免其增加。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识是最多的。但最终,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们发现Antero Midstream有2个警告信号,在你投资前你应该了解这些。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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