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We Think Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我们认为自动数据处理(纳斯达克:ADP)能够保持其债务的领先地位
Simply Wall St ·  12:09

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

有人说,波动性,而不是债务,是投资者思考风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”当我们思考一家公司的风险有多大时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。与许多其他公司一样,自动数据处理公司(纳斯达克股票代码:ADP)也使用债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务会带来多大的风险?

When Is Debt A Problem?

债务何时成为问题?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

一般而言,只有当公司无法通过筹集资金或用自己的现金流轻松还清债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题。资本主义的组成部分是 “创造性破坏” 过程,在这种过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。但是,更频繁(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地管理债务,而且对自己有利。考虑公司的债务水平的第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。

What Is Automatic Data Processing's Net Debt?

什么是自动数据处理的净负债?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Automatic Data Processing had US$9.04b of debt, an increase on US$3.33b, over one year. On the flip side, it has US$6.77b in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.27b.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2024年9月,自动数据处理在一年内有90.4亿美元的债务,比33.3亿美元有所增加。另一方面,它拥有67.7亿美元的现金,净负债约为22.7亿美元。

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NasdaqGS:ADP Debt to Equity History December 23rd 2024
NASDAQGS: ADP 债权与股本比率历史记录 2024 年 12 月 23 日

How Healthy Is Automatic Data Processing's Balance Sheet?

自动数据处理的资产负债表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Automatic Data Processing had liabilities of US$39.4b due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.79b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$6.77b in cash and US$3.32b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$34.1b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,自动数据处理在一年内到期的负债为394亿美元,之后到期的负债为47.9亿美元。与此相抵消的是,它有67.7亿美元的现金和33.2亿美元的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和多出341亿美元。

Automatic Data Processing has a very large market capitalization of US$119.8b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

自动数据处理的市值非常大,为1198亿美元,因此,如果需要,它很可能会筹集资金以改善其资产负债表。但是,我们绝对希望留意其债务带来过大风险的迹象。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

为了扩大公司相对于收益的负债规模,我们计算其净负债除以其扣除利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA)和其利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以其利息支出(利息保障)。因此,无论是否有折旧和摊销费用,我们都将债务与收益的关系考虑在内。

Automatic Data Processing has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.40. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 42.7 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. And we also note warmly that Automatic Data Processing grew its EBIT by 11% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Automatic Data Processing's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

自动数据处理的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率很低,仅为0.40。其息税前利润支付了高达42.7倍的利息支出。因此,你可以争辩说,它受到债务的威胁并不比大象受到老鼠的威胁更大。我们还热烈地注意到,去年,自动数据处理的息税前利润增长了11%,使其债务负担更易于处理。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,未来的收益比什么都重要,将决定自动数据处理未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Automatic Data Processing produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 76% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

但是我们最终的考虑因素也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,值得检查一下该息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去的三年中,自动数据处理产生了稳健的自由现金流,相当于其息税前利润的76%,与我们的预期差不多。这种自由现金流使公司处于有利地位,可以在适当的时候偿还债务。

Our View

我们的观点

Automatic Data Processing's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Looking at the bigger picture, we think Automatic Data Processing's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Automatic Data Processing that you should be aware of.

自动数据处理的利息保障表明,它可以像克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多在对阵14岁以下的守门员的比赛中进球一样轻松地处理债务。这仅仅是好消息的开始,因为将息税前利润转换为自由现金流也非常令人鼓舞。从大局来看,我们认为自动数据处理对债务的使用似乎相当合理,我们对此并不担心。虽然债务确实会带来风险,但如果明智地使用,它也可以带来更高的股本回报率。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,远非如此。例如,我们已经确定了 1 个您应该注意的自动数据处理警告标志。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果你是那种喜欢在没有债务负担的情况下购买股票的投资者,那么立即查看我们的净现金增长股票的独家清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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