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Investing in CITIC Securities (SHSE:600030) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 58% Gain

Investing in CITIC Securities (SHSE:600030) a Year Ago Would Have Delivered You a 58% Gain

一年前投资中信证券(ADR)(沪市:600030)将为你带来58%的收益
Simply Wall St ·  2024/12/25 12:21

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the CITIC Securities Company Limited (SHSE:600030) share price is 53% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 12% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 16% in the last three years.

如今,仅仅购买一个指数基金就很简单,你的收益应该(大致上)与市场相匹配。但如果你选择了正确的个股,你可能会赚更多。举个例子,中信证券(ADR)(SHSE:600030)的股价比一年前上涨了53%,远远好于同期市场约12%的回报(不包括分红派息)。这应该让股东们满意。然而,从长期来看,回报并不是那么令人印象深刻,过去三年股票仅上涨了16%。

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

现在值得关注一下公司的基本面,因为这将帮助我们判断长期股东回报是否与基础业务的表现相匹配。

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

虽然市场是一种强大的定价机制,但股价反映的是投资者情绪,而不仅仅是基础业务表现。查看公司股价与每股收益(EPS)之间的互动,可以检视市场情绪是如何随时间而变化的。

Over the last twelve months, CITIC Securities actually shrank its EPS by 6.3%.

在过去的十二个月里,中信证券的每股收益实际上下降了6.3%

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

鉴于股价的上涨,我们怀疑市场是否在关注每股收益的进展。由于每股收益的变化似乎与股价的变化并没有相关性,因此值得查看其他指标。

We doubt the modest 1.6% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. Revenue was pretty flat year on year, but maybe a closer look at the data can explain the market optimism.

我们怀疑1.6%的分红派息收益率对支持股价的作用不大。营业收入与去年基本持平,但也许仔细研究数据可以解释市场的乐观情绪。

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

您可以在下面看到盈利和营业收入随时间的变化(通过点击图片发现确切值)。

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SHSE:600030 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 25th 2024
SHSE:600030 盈利和营业收入增长 2024年12月25日

CITIC Securities is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for CITIC Securities in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

中信证券是一只知名股票,分析师覆盖面广,暗示未来增长有一定可见性。您可以在这个互动图表中看到分析师对中信证券的未来利润预测。

What About Dividends?

关于分红派息的问题

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of CITIC Securities, it has a TSR of 58% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑整体股东回报(TSR)。TSR考虑任何分拆或折扣资本筹集的价值,以及任何分红,基于假设这些分红被再投资。可以公平地说,对于支付分红的股票,TSR提供了更完整的图片。在中信证券的情况下,它在过去一年内的TSR为58%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报。这在很大程度上是由于其分红支付!

A Different Perspective

不同的视角

It's nice to see that CITIC Securities shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 58% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CITIC Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for CITIC Securities you should be aware of.

很高兴看到中信证券(ADR)的股东在过去一年中获得了58%的总股东回报。这其中包括分红派息。由于一年期的总股东回报率优于五年期的总股东回报率(后者为每年7%),这似乎表明该股票的表现近年来有所改善。鉴于股价动量仍然强劲,值得仔细关注该股票,以免错失机会。长期跟踪股价表现总是很有趣。但要更好地理解中信证券(ADR),我们需要考虑许多其他因素。举个例子:我们发现中信证券(ADR)有1个警告信号,您应该注意。

But note: CITIC Securities may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

但请注意:中信证券(ADR)可能不是最佳的买入股票。因此,看看这个免费而有趣的公司名单,这些公司过去有盈利增长(并且未来有进一步增长预期)。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

请注意,本文中引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇来自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,采用无偏见的方法,我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。它不构成对任何股票的买入或卖出建议,也未考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。

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