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Why Trump's Return To Office Could Drive Gold Demand In 2025

Why Trump's Return To Office Could Drive Gold Demand In 2025

特朗普重返岗位可能会推动2025年黄金需求
Benzinga ·  12/24 10:09

After beating most assets in 2024, gold is poised to continue its bullish trajectory. While positive catalysts like central bank purchases and inflation concerns still loom, the market sees President-elect Donald Trump's second term as a major volatility driver.

在2024年击败大多数资产后,黄金有望继续其看好的轨迹。尽管像中央银行购入和通货膨胀担忧等积极催化剂依然存在,市场将当选总统特朗普的第二个任期视为主要的波动性驱动因素。

"Although gold's momentum stalled in November as Donald Trump's win at the polls drove a surge in risk assets and the U.S. dollar, we think its price still has room to run in 2025," noted State Street Global Advisors, an investment management division of the world's fourth largest asset manager.

道富银行全球顾问指出:虽然黄金的动力在11月减缓,因为特朗普在投票中的胜利引发了风险资产和美元的激增,我们认为它的价格在2025年仍有上涨空间。

Among their gold strength catalysts are robust central bank demand, growing consumer investment in Asia, and the fiscal and monetary uncertainty stemming from Trump's anticipated policies. "Gold remains an essential hedge against rising inflation, geopolitical instability, and potential currency devaluations," the firm stated.

他们认为黄金强劲的催化剂包括强劲的中央银行需求、亚洲不断增长的消费投资,以及特朗普预期政策带来的财政和货币不确定性。该公司表示:“黄金仍然是对抗通货膨胀上升、地缘政治不稳定和潜在货币贬值的重要对冲工具。”

Trump's second term, set to begin on Jan. 20, is expected to intensify market volatility. Tariff policies could stoke cost-push inflation, particularly the threat of up to 60% tariffs on Chinese imports. These tariffs would likely pressure the U.S. dollar, making gold an attractive hedge, State Street said.

特朗普的第二个任期将于1月20日开始,预计将加剧市场波动。关税政策可能会引发成本推动型通货膨胀,特别是对中国进口商品的最高60%关税威胁。这些关税可能会施压美元,使黄金成为道富银行称之为有吸引力的对冲工具。

In contrast, a strong dollar—buoyed by higher interest rates or foreign asset flows—could temper gold's gains (owing to the historical inverse relationship). However, central bank purchases may offset this effect.

相比之下,强势美元——受到更高利率或外国资产流入的支撑——可能会抑制黄金的涨幅(由于历史上的反向关系)。然而,中央银行的购买可能会抵消这一影响。

Since 2022, central banks have purchased 2,700 tons of gold, the fastest pace in recent history, reflecting a deliberate move to diversify away from dollar-heavy reserves. Emerging markets, in particular, have accelerated de-dollarization efforts as geopolitical tensions rise. For example, India significantly expanded its gold reserves. Cultural significance, increased investment options like ETFs, and favorable tax reforms have bolstered demand.

自2022年以来,中央银行购买了2700吨黄金,这是近年来最快的速度,反映出一种故意的趋势,即希望从美元重的储备中多样化。新兴市场尤其加快了去美元化的努力,因为地缘政治紧张局势加剧。例如,印度显著扩大了黄金储备。文化重要性、增加的投资选择,如ETF,以及有利的税收改革提升了需求。

Drawing historical parallels, State Street sees Trump's policies—marked by tax cuts, increased defense spending, and tariff strategies—as comparable to George W. Bush's tenure, during which gold rallied 221% amid growing federal debt and accommodative monetary policies.

通过历史类比,道富银行认为特朗普的政策——以减税、增加军工股开支和关税策略为标志——与乔治·布什的任期相似,后者在联邦债务不断增加和宽松的货币政策下,黄金上涨了221%。

State Street projects three scenarios for gold in 2025:

道富银行预测2025年黄金的三种情景:

  • Base Case (50% Probability): $2,600-$2,900/oz. Robust central bank purchases and steady Asian demand maintain a soft price floor.

  • Bull Case (30% Probability): $2,900-$3,100/oz. Weaker dollar and Fed rate cuts spur ETF inflows and bolster Asian demand.

  • Bear Case (20% Probability): $2,200-$2,600/oz. Strong US growth and dollar strength lead to ETF outflows, though central bank buying provides support.

  • 基准情景(50%概率):每盎司2600-$2900。强劲的中央银行购买和稳定的亚洲需求维持软价底部。

  • 看好情景(30%概率):每盎司2900-$3100。疲弱的美元和美联储降息刺激ETF资金流入,增强亚洲需求。

  • 悲观情景(20%概率):每盎司2200-$2600。美国强劲的经济增长和美元强势导致ETF资金流出,尽管中央银行的购买提供支持。

State Street's specialized gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), is up 26.04% year-to-date.

道富银行专门的黄金ETF,SPDR金ETF (纽交所:GLD),截至目前涨幅为26.04%。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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