RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained a NEUTRAL call on the auto and auto parts sector as the research house feels the industry lacks catalysts to maintain its sales momentum in 2025.
In a research note on Dec 26, the research house stated that the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) recorded a total industry volume (TIV) of 67,500 units for November bringing the year-to-date (YTD) TIV to 731,000 units.
"Although there's an increase of 1.4% year-on-year (YoY) for the YTD figure compared to 11M23's numbers, the TIV recorded for November has weakened by 3% month-on-month (MoM) with major carmakers charting softer numbers, led by Toyota which saw a 6.7% MoM decline in sales volume.
"This was followed by Perodua (5.7%) and Proton (5%). Honda, however, recorded a 12.7% MoM increase," RHB Research said.
The research house said the total production volume (TPV) fell 14% MoM and 10% YoY to 60,900 units in November, bringing the 11M24 TPV to 724,800.
"The MoM decline was seen across the major marques with Proton leading the way with 21%, followed by Perodua (9%), Toyota (19%) and Honda (7%)," RHB Research added.
Nevertheless, the research house said generally, the performance of the auto sector players in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24) met the house's expectations as both Sime Darby Motors Bhd (SDM) and MBM Resources Bhd met its forecasts.
"SDM started its FY25 (June) with an 11% YoY rise in 1Q25 earnings, mainly contributed by the consolidation of UMW's numbers into its bottomline. MBM's net profit improved QoQ.
"However, results from Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd (TCM) and Bermaz Auto Bhd (BAuto) fell short of its estimates due to TCM concluding its 9M24 with widening losses while BAuto's 1H25 earnings fell 42% YoY due to weak sales delivery," RHB said, adding that for 2025, it is forecasting a TIV of 730,000 units, a drop of 8% YoY from its 2024 projection of 790,000 units.
The decline is due to the research house anticipating a softer TIV as the high base effect kicks in and it does not see any compelling factors for 2025 auto sales to be maintained at the current elevated levels.
"We think the decline will mainly be contributed by the non-national marques, which continue to face intensifying competition due to new names that have entered the fray.
"Additionally, some car buyers may postpone their purchases in anticipation of further price cuts from both existing and new non-national marques which would also destabilise the non-national segment," the research house said.
On that note, RHB Research remains cautious in its outlook for 2025 given the ongoing price competition between non-national marques while softening order backlogs also indicate toned-down expectations.
The research house's top picks are BAuto for its attractive valuation and higher-than-sector-average dividend yield and SDM for its broad electric vehicle line-up which is well positioned for the RON95 rationalisation.
印度兴业投资银行有限公司（RhB Research）对汽车和汽车零部件行业保持中立看法，因为该研究机构认为该行业缺乏在2025年保持销售势头的催化剂。
该研究机构在12月26日的一份研究报告中表示，马来西亚汽车协会（MAA）记录的11月份行业总销量（TIV）为67,500辆，使年初至今（YTD）的TIV达到73.1万辆。
“尽管与 11M23 相比，年初至今的数字同比增长了1.4％，但11月份的TIV同比（MoM）下降了3％，主要汽车制造商的数字有所疲软，丰田的销量环比下降了6.7％。
“其次是Perodua（5.7％）和Proton（5％）。但是，本田的环比增长了12.7％。” RhB Research说。
该研究机构表示，11月总产量（TPV）环比下降14％，同比下降10％，至60,900辆，使11M24 TPV降至724,800辆。
RhB Research补充说：“各大品牌均出现环比下滑，其中宝腾以21％领先，其次是Perodua（9％）、丰田（19％）和本田（7％）。”
尽管如此，该研究机构总体上表示，由于森达比汽车有限公司（SDM）和mBM Resources Bhd均达到了预期，汽车行业参与者在2024年第三季度（3Q24）的表现符合该公司的预期。
“sdM在25财年（6月）开始时，25年第一季度的收益同比增长了11％，这主要是由UMW的数字整合到其利润线中造成的。MBM 的净利润环比有所改善。
RhB表示：“但是，新创汽车控股有限公司（TCM）和Bermaz Auto Bhd（bAuto）的业绩未达到预期，原因是中药在9M24结束时亏损扩大，而由于销售交付疲软，bAuto的25上半年收益同比下降42％。” 他补充说，到2025年，预计TIV为73万辆，同比下降8％ 单位。
下降的原因是该研究机构预计，随着高基数效应的出现，TIV将走软，而且它认为2025年汽车销量维持在目前的高水平没有任何令人信服的因素。
“我们认为，这种下降将主要是由非国有品牌造成的，由于新名字加入竞争，这些品牌继续面临日益激烈的竞争。
该研究机构表示：“此外，一些购车者可能会推迟购买，因为预计现有和新的非国有品牌将进一步降价，这也将破坏非国有市场的稳定。”
就此而言，鉴于非国有品牌之间持续的价格竞争，RhB Research对2025年的前景仍然持谨慎态度，而订单积压的疲软也表明预期有所减弱。
该研究机构的首选是 bAuto，因为其估值诱人，股息收益率高于行业平均水平，以及其广泛的电动汽车阵容的 SdM，为 RON95 合理化做好了充分准备。
