Malaysia's first EV Proton e.MAS 7
According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), November's TIV of 67.5k units brought 11M24 TIV to 731k units. While 2024 TIV growth may be flattish YoY, RHB Research in its assessment is maintaining its NEUTRAL position on the sector as it is weighting due to the industry lacking catalysts to maintain its sales momentum in 2025. The house maintains its 2025 TIV forecast at 730k units.
In November, the MAA recorded a TIV of 67.5k units, which took YTD TIV to 731k units – up 1.4% YoY from 11M23's numbers. TIV weakened MoM in November, with the major carmakers charting softer numbers. This was led by Toyota, which saw a 6.7% MoM decline in sales volume, followed by Perodua (-5.7%) and Proton (-5.0%). Honda, meanwhile, recorded a 12.7% MoM rise. YTD, Perodua has sold close to 326k units and is well on course to surpass its 2023 sales level of 330,325 units, which will mark another record-breaking year for the national carmaker. Total production volume or TPV fell 14% MoM and 10% YoY to 60.9k units in November, bringing 11M24 TPV to 724.8k (+2.3% YoY) . The MoM decline was seen across the major marques – Proton (-21%), Perodua (-9%), Toyota (-19%) and Honda (-7%).
Generally, RHB said the performances of the auto sector players met expectations, as both SIME and MBM Resources (MBM) met forecasts. Meanwhile, results from Tan Chong Motor and BAUTO fell short of estimates. SIME started off its FY25 (Jun) with a 11%YoYrise in 1QFY25 earnings, mainly contributed by the consolidation of UMW's numbers into its bottomline. MBM's net profit improved QoQ – as expected – given higher Perodua sales volumes (the national carmaker had two planned factory maintenance shutdowns in 2Q). TCM, on the other hand, concluded its 9M24 with widening losses while BAUTO's 1HFY25 (Apr) earnings fell 42% YoY due to weak sales delivery (-46% YoY).
For 2025, the house forecasts a TIV of 730k units, implying a 8% YoY decline from 2024 projection of 790k. RHB Research is anticipating a softer TIVas the high base effect kicks in, and do not see any compelling factors for 2025 auto sales to be maintained at the current elevated levels. The house believes the decline will mainly be contributed by the non-national marques, which continue to face intensifying competition as a result of new names that have entered the fray, ie mainly the China carmakers. Some car buyers may postpone their purchases in anticipation of further price cuts from both existing and new non-national marques – which would also destabilise the non-national segment.
The house remains NEUTRAL on the sector, as it remains cautious on the outlook for next year – given the ongoing price competition between the non-national marques, while softening order backlogs also indicate toned-down expectations for 2025. Top Picks are still BAUTO (attractive valuation, higher-than-sector-average dividend yield) and SIME (well-positioned for the RON95 rationalisation, with its broad EV line-up). SIME's stake in Perodua also helps to insulate the former against earnings risks, amidst intensifying competition between the non-national marques.
马来西亚首款电动汽车 Proton e.MAS 7
根据马来西亚汽车协会（MAA）的数据，11月份的TIV为6.75万辆，使得 11M24 TIV达到73.1万辆。尽管2024年TIV的同比增长可能持平，但由于该行业缺乏在2025年保持销售势头的催化剂，RhB Research在其评估中保持了对该行业的中立立场。该公司维持其对2025年的TIV预测为73万套。
11月，MAA录得的TIV为6.75万辆，使年初至今的TIV达到73.1万辆——比 11M23 的数字同比增长1.4％。TIV在11月份表现疲软，主要汽车制造商公布的数字有所疲软。其中，丰田汽车的销量环比下降了6.7％，其次是Perodua（-5.7％）和宝腾（-5.0％）。与此同时，本田的环比涨幅为12.7％。迄今为止，Perodua已售出近32.6万辆，有望超过其2023年的330,325辆的销量水平，这将标志着这家全国性汽车制造商又一个破纪录的一年。11月，总产量或总产量环比下降14％，同比下降10％，至6.09万辆，使11M24 TPV降至72.48万（同比增长2.3％）。主要品牌——宝腾（-21％）、佩罗杜亚（-9％）、丰田（-19％）和本田（-7％）——均出现了月度下滑。
总体而言，RhB表示，汽车行业参与者的表现符合预期，因为SIME和mBM Resources（MBM）都达到了预期。同时，新创汽车和BAUTO的业绩低于预期。SIME在25财年（6月）伊始时，1QFY25 收益同比上涨了11％，这主要是由UMW的数字整合到其利润线中所致。鉴于Perodua的销量增加（这家全国性汽车制造商计划在第二季度关闭两次工厂维护），MBM的净利润环比有所改善，正如预期的那样。另一方面，由于销售交付疲软，中药在24个月结束时亏损扩大，而BAUTO的 1HFY25（4月）收益同比下降42％（同比下降46％）。
众议院预测2025年的TIV为73万套，这意味着与2024年预测的79万套相比，同比下降8％。RhB Research预计，随着高基数效应的出现，TIVA将变得更加疲软，并且认为2025年汽车销量将维持在目前的高水平上没有任何令人信服的因素。众议院认为，下降将主要由非国有品牌所致，由于新品牌的加入，主要是中国汽车制造商，这些品牌继续面临日益激烈的竞争。一些购车者可能会推迟购买，因为预计现有和新的非国有品牌将进一步降价，这也将破坏非国有市场的稳定。
鉴于非国有品牌之间持续的价格竞争，众议院对该行业保持中立，对明年的前景仍持谨慎态度，而订单积压的疲软也表明对2025年的预期有所减弱。首选仍然是BAUTO（估值诱人，股息收益率高于行业平均水平）和SIME（拥有广泛的电动汽车阵容，为 RON95 合理化做好了充分准备）。在非国有品牌之间的竞争日益激烈的情况下，SIME在Perodua的股份还有助于使前者免受收益风险的影响。
