Is UniTTECLtd (SZSE:000925) A Risky Investment?
Is UniTTECLtd (SZSE:000925) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that UniTTEC Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000925) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
由巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录毫不掩饰地表示:‘最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是您是否会遭受永久资本损失。’因此,当您考虑任何给定股票的风险时,显然需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务可能会使公司陷入困境。我们注意到,UniTTEC有限公司(SZSE:000925)确实在其资产负债表上有债务。但真正的问题是,这些债务是否使公司变得具有风险。
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务带来风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
当企业无法轻易履行债务和其他负债的义务时,这些负债就变得风险很大,无论是通过自由现金流还是以有吸引力的价格筹集资本。最终,如果公司无法履行其法律义务偿还债务,股东可能会一无所获。然而,更常见(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以超低价格发行股票,永久性稀释股东,仅仅是为了支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务的好处在于,它通常代表着低成本资本,尤其是当它替代一个具有高回报再投资能力的公司的稀释时。考虑一家企业使用多少债务时,首先要查看其现金与债务的结合情况。
What Is UniTTECLtd's Net Debt?
UniTTEC有限公司的净债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 UniTTECLtd had debt of CN¥2.50b, up from CN¥2.03b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.21b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥1.29b.
下图可点击以获取更多详细信息,显示到2024年9月,UniTTEC有限公司的债务达到25亿人民币,较去年增加20.3亿人民币。另一方面,它拥有12.1亿人民币的现金,导致净债务约为12.9亿人民币。
How Healthy Is UniTTECLtd's Balance Sheet?
UniTTECLtd的资产负债表健康吗?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that UniTTECLtd had liabilities of CN¥3.37b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.28b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.21b and CN¥2.44b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥1.0b.
从最新的资产负债表中我们可以看到,UniTTECLtd在一年内到期的负债为33.7亿人民币,而超过一年的负债为12.8亿人民币。另一方面,它的现金为12.1亿人民币,以及24.4亿人民币的应收款在一年内到期。因此,它的负债超过其现金和(短期)应收款的总和10亿人民币。
Of course, UniTTECLtd has a market capitalization of CN¥6.03b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
当然,UniTTECLtd的市值为60.3亿人民币,因此这些负债可能是可以管理的。然而,我们认为值得关注其资产负债表的强度,因为它可能会随着时间的推移而变化。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过看净债务与息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何轻松地覆盖利息费用(利息覆盖)来衡量一家公司相对于其获利能力的债务负担。这样,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量,也考虑了其支付的利率。
UniTTECLtd shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (5.1), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.6 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. One redeeming factor for UniTTECLtd is that it turned last year's EBIT loss into a gain of CN¥134m, over the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if UniTTECLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
UniTTECLtd的股东面临着高净负债与EBITDA比率(5.1)和相当较弱的利息覆盖率,因为EBIT仅为利息支出的1.6倍。这意味着我们会认为它的债务负担较重。UniTTECLtd的一个改善因素是,在过去十二个月中,它将去年的EBIT亏损转为盈利13400万人民币。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中能学到大部分关于债务的知识。但最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定UniTTECLtd能否在未来加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. During the last year, UniTTECLtd burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润并不能解决问题。因此,检查其利息和税前利润(EBIT)有多少转化为实际自由现金流是很重要的。在过去的一年里,UniTTECLtd消耗了大量现金。虽然这可能是因为增长的支出,但这确实使得债务风险更大。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, UniTTECLtd's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its level of total liabilities is not so bad. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that UniTTECLtd's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for UniTTECLtd that you should be aware of.
从表面上看,UniTTECLtd的利息覆盖率让我们对该股票感到犹豫,而其EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力也并没有比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空荡荡的餐厅更具吸引力。 但至少其总负债水平还算不错。 从更宏观的角度来看,我们认为UniTTECLtd的债务使用正在为公司制造风险。如果一切顺利,这可能会获得回报,但这种债务的缺点是永久性损失的风险更大。 毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到了更多关于债务的知识。 然而,并不是所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。 例如,我们已发现1个警告信号,您应该对UniTTECLtd保持警惕。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
无论最终结果如何,有时候更容易关注那些根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以立即免费获取一份净债务为零的成长股列表。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?对内容有疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇来自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,采用无偏见的方法,我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。它不构成对任何股票的买入或卖出建议,也未考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。