Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
受巴菲特的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李路坦言:‘最大投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资本的永久损失。’ 当你审视一家公司有多大风险时,考虑公司的资产负债表是很自然的,因为企业倒闭时往往涉及到债务。我们注意到,Ciena公司(纽交所:CIEN)确实在其资产负债表上有债务。但真正的问题是,这些债务是否使公司变得有风险。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时会变得危险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般来说,债务只有在公司无法轻易偿还时才成为真正的问题,要么通过筹集资金,要么通过自身的自由现金流。在最糟糕的情况下,如果公司无法偿还债权人,就可能破产。然而,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,从而永久稀释股东权益,仅仅是为了支撑其资产负债表。当然,债务在企业中可以是一个重要的工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。当我们考虑一家公司的债务使用时,我们首先将现金和债务一起考虑。
What Is Ciena's Net Debt?
Ciena的净债务是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Ciena had US$1.54b in debt in November 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it also had US$1.25b in cash, and so its net debt is US$293.6m.
下面的图表,您可以点击以获取更详细信息,显示Ciena在2024年11月的债务为15.4亿美金;与前一年相差不大。 然而,它也有12.5亿美金的现金,因此其净债务为29360万美金。
How Healthy Is Ciena's Balance Sheet?
Ciena的资产负债表有多健康?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Ciena had liabilities of US$999.8m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.83b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.25b as well as receivables valued at US$1.08b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$491.5m.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,Ciena在一年内到期的负债为99980万美元,而在此之后到期的负债为18.3亿美元。抵消这些义务,Ciena拥有现金12.5亿美元以及在12个月内到期的应收款10.8亿美元。因此,它的负债比现金和(短期)应收款的总和多出49150万美元。
Given Ciena has a humongous market capitalization of US$12.3b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
考虑到Ciena有一个巨大的市场资本为123亿美元,很难相信这些负债会构成太大的威胁。但负债足够多,我们确实建议股东继续关注资产负债表。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
为了评估一家公司的债务与其收益的关系,我们计算其净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及息税前利润(EBIT)与利息费用的比率(即利息覆盖率)。通过这种方式,我们考虑了债务的绝对数量和所支付的利率。
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.90 and interest cover of 5.5 times, it seems to us that Ciena is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Importantly, Ciena's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 50% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ciena's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
从其净债务与EBITDA的比率0.90和利息覆盖率5.5倍来看,我们认为Ciena可能在合理地使用债务。但利息支付显然足以让我们思考它的债务是否可负担。重要的是,Ciena的EBIT在过去十二个月中骤然下降了50%。如果这种下降持续下去,那么偿还债务将比在素食者大会上出售鹅肝困难得多。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到了不少债务的知识。但未来的收益,比任何事情,都将判断Ciena在未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,显示分析师的利润预测。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Ciena recorded free cash flow of 24% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
但我们的最终考虑也很重要,因为公司不能用纸面利润支付债务;它需要真金白银。因此,我们总是检查EBIT中有多少转化为自由现金流。看最近三年的数据显示,Ciena的自由现金流占EBIT的24%,这比我们预期的要弱。这种现金转化率的低下使得处理债务变得更加困难。
Our View
我们的观点
Ciena's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its net debt to EBITDA is relatively strong. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Ciena is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Ciena has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Ciena在增长EBIT方面的挣扎让我们开始怀疑其资产负债表的强度,但我们考虑的其他数据点相对令人欣慰。 例如,其净债务与EBITDA的比率相对较强。 从上述所有角度来看,我们认为Ciena由于其债务而成为一种有些风险的投资。这未必是坏事,因为杠杆可以提升股本回报,但这值得注意。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但最终,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表以外的风险。例如 - Ciena有1个警告信号,我们认为您应该意识到。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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