Jimmy Carter's Complex Economic Legacy: High Inflation, But Effective, Hawkish Fed Under Volcker
Jimmy Carter's Complex Economic Legacy: High Inflation, But Effective, Hawkish Fed Under Volcker
President Jimmy Carter, who died at his home on Sunday at age 100, brought a political outsider status to Washington, D.C. during a period of immense distrust in government.
卡特总统于周日去世,享年100岁,他在华盛顿特区期间带来了政治局外人的身份,那时政府受到极大的不信任。
There was the Watergate scandal, high inflation, mass protests due to the Vietnam War, high government spending and loose monetary policy.
那时有水门事件、高通货膨胀、由于越南战争的大规模抗议、政府高支出和宽松的货币政策。
Carter, a Georgian native who won the White House in 1976, inherited an economy reeling from a recession and subsequent inflation proved disastrous for his 1980 reelection bid.
卡特是乔治亚州本地人,他在1976年赢得了白宫,继承了一个经历衰退后经济不景气的国家,这对他1980年的连任竞选造成了灾难性影响。
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, inflation neared 6% in 1976 before Carter's presidency began.
根据圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据,在卡特的总统任期开始之前,1976年的通货膨胀率接近6%。
Carter then presided over 6.5%, 7.5%, 11.3% and 13.5% inflation in successive years. Economists consider 2% to be a healthy rate of inflation.
随后卡特分别在接下来的几年中经历了6.5%、7.5%、11.3%和13.5%的通货膨胀。经济学家认为2%是一个健康的通货膨胀率。
"In the last 10 years, in our attempts to protect ourselves from inflation, we've developed attitudes and habits that actually keep inflation going once it has begun," the 39th U.S. President said in 1978.
“在过去的10年里,在保护自己免受通货膨胀的尝试中,我们形成了一些态度和习惯,实际上使得一旦通货膨胀开始便持续下去,”这位美国第39任总统在1978年说道。
"Most companies raise their prices because they expect costs to rise. Unions call for large wage settlements because they expect it to happen, and once it's started, wages and prices chase each other up and up. It's like a crowd standing at a football stadium. No one can see any better than when everyone is sitting down, but no one is willing to be the first to sit down."
“大多数公司提高价格是因为他们预期成本会上升。工会要求大幅的工资协议是因为他们期待这种情况的发生,一旦开始,工资和价格就会相互追逐,一路上涨。这就像一群人站在足球场里。没人能看得比大家都坐下时更清楚,但没有人愿意第一个坐下。”
In 1979, Carter nominated Paul Volcker, then the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to chair the Federal Reserve. Volcker hawkishly shaped monetary policy by hiking the federal funds rate from 10% to nearly 18%.
1979年,卡特提名当时纽约联邦储备银行行长的保罗·沃尔克担任联邦储备委员会主席。沃尔克通过将联邦基金利率从10%提高到接近18%来激进地塑造货币政策。
The economy then entered a recession as the unemployment rate neared 8%.
当时经济进入衰退,失业率接近8%。
That year, Carter was also dealing with the Iranian Revolution. From April 1979 to November 1980, the price of oil spiked over 130%, per the Energy Information Administration. This worsened inflation and created "stagflation," an increase in prices and unemployment due to a negative supply shock.
那一年,卡特还在处理伊朗革命。根据能源信息管理局的数据,从1979年4月到1980年11月,石油价格飙升超过130%。这加剧了通货膨胀,并造成了"滞涨",即因负面的供应冲击造成价格和失业率上升。
Carter faced a primary challenge from Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy, which he won decisively. But he fared much worse in the general election, suffering a landslide loss to then-California Governor Ronald Reagan. Reagan, a Republican, carried 44 states and won the popular vote by nearly 10%.
卡特在马萨诸塞州参议员泰德·肯尼迪的初选中面临挑战,并成功击败对手。但在大选中,他的表现则大为逊色,以压倒性劣势输给了当时的加州州长罗纳德·里根。里根作为一名共和党人,赢得了44个州,并以近10%的优势赢得了普选票。
Volcker's monetary policy and the induced recession did not lend Carter any electoral help. Volcker's rate hikes continued during the Reagan administration. They went as high as 21% leading to a prolonged recession in 1981 and 1982.
沃尔克的货币政策和引发的衰退并没有给卡特任何选举上的帮助。沃尔克的加息在里根政府期间仍持续进行,最高达到21%,导致1981年至1982年间的长时间衰退。
Still, economists credit Volcker for the historic disinflation and end of high inflation expectations. Inflation remained below 6%, usually hovering around 2%, for several decades following the 1980s.
尽管如此,经济学家们仍然赞扬沃尔克历史性的去通货膨胀和高通货膨胀预期的结束。在1980年代之后的几十年里,通货膨胀保持在6%以下,通常徘徊在2%左右。
Historians have increasingly reevaluated Carter's presidency. Today, they acknowledge the long-term significance of his decisions despite his administration's unpopularity.
历史学家们越来越重新评估卡特的总统任期。今天,他们承认尽管他的政府不受欢迎,但他的决策具有长期的重要性。
Carter's appointing of Volcker as Fed chair was politically costly but is considered a crucial step in curbing historic inflation.
卡特任命沃尔克担任美联储主席在政治上代价高昂,但被视为遏制历史性通货膨胀的关键一步。
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