Is Zebra Technologies (NASDAQ:ZBRA) A Risky Investment?
Is Zebra Technologies (NASDAQ:ZBRA) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Zebra Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ZBRA) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
传奇基金经理李路(查理·芒格力挺)曾说过,“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。”当我们考虑一家公司有多大风险时,我们总是喜欢查看它的债务情况,因为债务过重可能导致毁灭。我们注意到,斑马技术公司(纳斯达克:ZBRA)确实在其资产负债表上有债务。但是,股东是否应该担心它的债务使用呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何时债务成为问题?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务帮助企业,直到企业在偿还时遇到麻烦,无论是通过新资本还是通过自由现金流。资本主义的一个重要部分是“创造性破坏”的过程,失败的企业会被其银行家无情清算。然而,更常见(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以便宜得可怜的价格发行股票,永久性稀释股东的股份,仅仅是为了增强其资产负债表。当然,许多公司利用债务来支持增长,而没有任何负面后果。当我们考虑一家公司的债务使用时,我们首先会一起查看现金和债务。
What Is Zebra Technologies's Debt?
斑马技术公司的债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Zebra Technologies had US$2.17b of debt in September 2024, down from US$2.31b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$676.0m, its net debt is less, at about US$1.49b.
您可以点击下面的图形查看历史数据,但它显示斑马技术公司在2024年9月的债务为21.7亿美元,较一年前的23.1亿美元有所减少。然而,由于它有67600万美元的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为14.9亿美元。
How Healthy Is Zebra Technologies' Balance Sheet?
斑马技术的资产负债表有多健康?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Zebra Technologies had liabilities of US$1.56b due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.71b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$676.0m in cash and US$709.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$2.88b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,斑马技术在一年内有15.6亿美元的负债,以及27.1亿美元的负债在那之后到期。对此,它有67600万美元的现金和70900万美元在12个月内到期的应收款。因此,它的负债总额超过其现金和短期应收款的总和达到28.8亿美元。
Given Zebra Technologies has a humongous market capitalization of US$20.1b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
考虑到斑马技术拥有210亿美元的庞大市值,很难相信这些负债会构成太大威胁。话虽如此,显然我们应该继续监测它的资产负债表,以免情况恶化。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我们通过查看公司的净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及计算息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖利息费用的能力(利息保障率),来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力的情况。这种方法的优势在于,我们同时考虑了债务的绝对量(通过净债务与EBITDA的比率)和与该债务相关的实际利息费用(通过其利息保障率)。
Zebra Technologies has net debt worth 1.9 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 4.7 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. The bad news is that Zebra Technologies saw its EBIT decline by 18% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Zebra Technologies can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
斑马技术的净债务是EBITDA的1.9倍,这并不算太高,但其利息覆盖率看起来有些偏低,EBIT仅为利息支出的4.7倍。虽然这并不让我们太担心,但它确实暗示利息支付有一定负担。坏消息是,斑马技术的EBIT在去年下降了18%。如果收益继续以这个速度下降,那么处理债务将比接送三个五岁以下的孩子去高级餐厅还要困难。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表上学到最多的关于债务的信息。但最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定斑马技术是否能在未来增强其资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费报告,了解分析师的盈利预测。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Zebra Technologies recorded free cash flow worth 52% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
最后,虽然税务官可能喜欢会计利润,但贷方只接受现金。因此,合乎逻辑的一步是查看EBIT中有多少比例与实际自由现金流相匹配。在最近三年中,斑马技术的自由现金流占其EBIT的52%,这在正常范围内,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税收。这一自由现金流使得公司在适当时机能很好地偿还债务。
Our View
我们的观点
Zebra Technologies's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is relatively strong. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Zebra Technologies is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Zebra Technologies has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
斑马技术在实现EBIT增长方面的挣扎让我们对其资产负债表的强度产生了怀疑,但我们考虑的其他数据点相对来说比较有利。例如,其EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力相对较强。综上所述,似乎由于其债务,斑马技术的投资风险相对较高。这并不一定是坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报,但这是需要注意的事项。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。然而,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表上,远非如此。例如,斑马技术有2个我们认为你应该注意的警告信号。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
最终,通常更好的是关注没有净负债的公司。你可以访问我们特别列出这些公司的名单(所有公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。
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