We Think Hunan Zhongke Electric (SZSE:300035) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
We Think Hunan Zhongke Electric (SZSE:300035) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Hunan Zhongke Electric Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300035) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
大卫·伊本说得好,‘波动性不是我们关心的风险。我们关心的是避免资本的永久损失。’所以,聪明的钱知道,债务——通常与破产相关——是评估公司风险时一个非常重要的因素。像许多其他公司一样,中科电气(SZSE:300035)也利用了债务。但是,这笔债务对股东来说是一个问题吗?
When Is Debt A Problem?
何时债务成为问题?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
当一家公司无法轻松履行其义务时,债务和其他负债就变得风险重重,无论是通过自由现金流还是以有吸引力的价格筹集资本。资本主义的一个重要部分便是“创造性破坏”的过程,失败的企业会被其银行家无情地清算。虽然这并不常见,但我们常常看到负债累累的公司因贷款方迫使他们以折价筹集资本而永久稀释股东权益。当然,很多公司利用债务来推动增长,没有任何负面后果。当我们考虑一家公司使用债务的情况时,我们首先会将现金和债务放在一起查看。
What Is Hunan Zhongke Electric's Debt?
中科电气的债务是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Hunan Zhongke Electric had debt of CN¥2.93b, up from CN¥2.29b in one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥834.1m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥2.09b.
下面的图片,您可以点击查看更详细的信息,显示到2024年9月,中科电气的债务为29.3亿人民币,较去年22.9亿人民币有所上升。另一方面,它有83410万人民币的现金,导致净债务约为20.9亿人民币。
How Strong Is Hunan Zhongke Electric's Balance Sheet?
中科电气的资产负债表有多强?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Hunan Zhongke Electric had liabilities of CN¥4.33b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.96b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥834.1m in cash and CN¥2.77b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥2.68b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根据最新报告的资产负债表,中科电气在12个月内到期的负债为43.3亿人民币,12个月后到期的负债为19.6亿人民币。相抵的是,它有83410万人民币的现金和27.7亿人民币的应收账款,这些应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出26.8亿人民币。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Hunan Zhongke Electric has a market capitalization of CN¥10.2b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
虽然这看起来很多,但这并不算糟糕,因为中科电气的市值为102亿人民币,因此如果需要,它可能会通过融资来增强资产负债表。但是,显然我们应该仔细检查它能否在不稀释的情况下管理其债务。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我们通过查看公司的净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及计算息税前利润(EBIT)覆盖利息费用的能力(利息保障率),来衡量公司的债务负担相对于其盈利能力的情况。这种方法的优势在于,我们同时考虑了债务的绝对量(通过净债务与EBITDA的比率)和与该债务相关的实际利息费用(通过其利息保障率)。
Hunan Zhongke Electric has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.7 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that Hunan Zhongke Electric actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 889%, over the last 12 months. If that earnings trend continues it will make its debt load much more manageable in the future. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Hunan Zhongke Electric's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
中科电气的债务与EBITDA比率为2.7,其EBIT覆盖利息支出3.7倍。这表明尽管债务水平显著,但我们不至于称其为问题。然而,股东不妨回想一下,中科电气实际上在过去12个月里增加了889%的EBIT。如果这种盈利趋势持续下去,它的债务负担将在未来变得更可管理。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是起点。但未来的收益,尤其是,将决定中科电气未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,了解分析师的盈利预测。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Hunan Zhongke Electric burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最终,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润并不足够。因此,检查该EBIt中有多少是由自由现金流支撑的,值得关注。在过去三年中,中科电气消耗了大量现金。尽管投资者无疑期待这种情况会在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着其使用债务的风险更高。
Our View
我们的观点
Hunan Zhongke Electric's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Hunan Zhongke Electric is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with Hunan Zhongke Electric (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
中科电气将EBIt转换为自由现金流和利息偿付能力显然给我们带来了压力。但好消息是,它似乎能够轻松地增长EBIt。综合考虑上述所有方面,我们认为中科电气由于其债务成了一项相当风险的投资。这并不一定是坏事,因为杠杆可以提升股本回报,但这确实是需要注意的地方。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是需要关注的领域。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。我们已经确定中科电气有3个警告信号(至少有1个让我们感到不安),理解这些信号应成为你投资过程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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