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Is Qianhe Condiment and Food (SHSE:603027) A Risky Investment?

Is Qianhe Condiment and Food (SHSE:603027) A Risky Investment?

千禾味业(SHSE:603027)是一个高风险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  01/01 00:52

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Qianhe Condiment and Food Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603027) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

传奇基金经理李禄(查理·芒格支持的)曾说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资本的永久损失。”当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢查看其债务的使用情况,因为债务过重可能导致毁灭。我们注意到,千禾味业(SHSE:603027)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东对于这些债务是否会感到担忧呢?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时会变得危险?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

当企业无法轻易履行这些义务时,债务和其他负债就会变得风险重重,要么依靠自由现金流,要么以有吸引力的价格融资。资本主义的一个组成部分是‘创造性破坏’的过程,失败的企业会被其银行毫不留情地清算。然而,一个更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情景是,它必须以低价格融资新的股本,从而永久性地稀释股东。不过,通过替代稀释,债务可以成为需要资本进行高回报增长投资的企业的极好工具。当我们审视债务水平时,我们首先将现金和债务水平结合起来考虑。

What Is Qianhe Condiment and Food's Net Debt?

千禾味业的净债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Qianhe Condiment and Food had debt of CN¥151.8m, up from none in one year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥1.41b in cash, leading to a CN¥1.25b net cash position.

下面的图片可以点击以获得更详细的信息,显示到2024年9月,千禾味业的债务为人民币15180万,比一年前的零增加。但是另一方面,它还有人民币14.1亿的现金,净现金头寸达到人民币12.5亿。

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SHSE:603027 Debt to Equity History January 1st 2025
SHSE:603027 债务与权益历史 2025年1月1日

How Strong Is Qianhe Condiment and Food's Balance Sheet?

千禾味业的资产负债表有多强?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Qianhe Condiment and Food had liabilities of CN¥686.2m due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥46.0m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.41b as well as receivables valued at CN¥147.7m due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥822.2m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,千禾味业的负债为68620万元,短期内到期,且有4600万元的负债在之后到期。 抵消这些义务,它拥有14.1亿现金以及价值14770万元的应收账款,预计12个月内到期。 因此,它的流动资产超过总负债82220万元。

This surplus suggests that Qianhe Condiment and Food has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Succinctly put, Qianhe Condiment and Food boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

这 surplus 表明千禾味业的资产负债表较为保守,并且可能不费力地淘汰其债务。 简而言之,千禾味业拥有净现金,所以可以公平地说它没有沉重的债务负担!

But the bad news is that Qianhe Condiment and Food has seen its EBIT plunge 13% in the last twelve months. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Qianhe Condiment and Food's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

但坏消息是千禾味业的EBIT在过去12个月中骤降13%。 我们认为这种表现,如果频繁重现,可能会给股票带来困难。 分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个明确的起点。 但未来收益,胜过其他一切,将判断千禾味业未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。 所以如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Qianhe Condiment and Food may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. In the last three years, Qianhe Condiment and Food's free cash flow amounted to 42% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

最后,企业只能用冷硬的现金偿还债务,而非会计利润。 千禾味业的资产负债表上可能有净现金,但查看该业务如何将利息和税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流仍然很有趣,因为这将影响其对债务的需求和管理能力。 在过去三年中,千禾味业的自由现金流占其EBIT的42%,低于我们的预期。 这种弱现金转化使其更难以处理债务问题。

Summing Up

总结

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Qianhe Condiment and Food has net cash of CN¥1.25b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we are not troubled with Qianhe Condiment and Food's debt use. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in Qianhe Condiment and Food, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.

虽然我们同情那些对债务感到担忧的投资者,但您应该记住,千禾味业拥有净现金12.5亿人民币,并且流动资产比负债更多。因此,我们对千禾味业的债务使用并不担忧。随着时间的推移,股票价格往往跟随每股收益,因此如果您对千禾味业感兴趣,您可能想点击这里查看其每股收益历史的互动图表。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

最终,通常更好的是关注没有净负债的公司。你可以访问我们特别列出这些公司的名单(所有公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇来自Simply Wall St的文章是一般性的。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,采用无偏见的方法,我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。它不构成对任何股票的买入或卖出建议,也未考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们旨在为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意,我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。

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