Cautious Outlook On Banking Sector Loan Growth Trajectory
Cautious Outlook On Banking Sector Loan Growth Trajectory
Deposits grew at a slower pace of 3.6% YoY, with a notable increase in current account savings accounts (CASA) at 5% YoY compared to fixed deposits at 4% YoY. This resulted in a higher loan-to-deposit ratio of 88%, up from 86% a year ago, and a CASA ratio of 31.3%, reflecting improved liquidity within the system.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained its OVERWEIGHT rating on the banking sector, citing healthy loan growth and stable asset quality. The research house's top picks include AMMB Holdings Bhd, Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Hong Leong Bank Bhd, which it believes provides a defensive investment option amid an optimistic outlook for the sector.
RHb投资银行有限公司（RHb研究）维持对银行板块的增持评级，指出贷款增长健康且资产质量稳定。该研究机构的首选包括AMMb控股有限公司、马来西亚联盟银行、CIMb集团控股有限公司和丰隆银行，认为这些提供了在该板块乐观前景下的防御性投资选择。
Bank Negara Malaysia's statistics for November 2024 highlighted a 5.8% year-on-year (YoY) growth in system loans, outperforming deposit growth of 3.6%. Household loans rose by 6.1% YoY, while business loans grew 5.4% YoY. Strong performances were noted in sectors such as finance (17% YoY) and wholesale & retail (9% YoY), which offset declines in agriculture (5% YoY), and education and health (3% YoY). Year-to-date (YTD), loans have grown at an annualised rate of 5.1%, aligning with RHB Research's forecast of 5%-5.5% growth for 2024.
马来西亚国家银行2024年11月的统计数据显示，系统贷款同比增长5.8%，超过了存款增长3.6%。家庭贷款同比增长6.1%，而企业贷款同比增长5.4%。金融（同比17%）和批发与零售（同比9%）等板块表现强劲，抵消了农业（同比5%）以及教育和健康（同比3%）的下降。年初至今（YTD），贷款年化增长率为5.1%，与RHb研究2024年5%-5.5%的增长预测一致。
Despite slower system loan applications and approvals on a month-on-month (MoM) basis in November, loan disbursements showed a 1% MoM increase, suggesting a potential uptick in lending activity in the coming months. YTD, loan applications and approvals rose by 4% and 3% YoY, respectively.
尽管11月份系统贷款申请和批准环比有所放缓，但贷款发放显示出环比1%的增长，暗示未来几个月可能会出现贷款活动的上升。年初至今，贷款申请和批准分别同比增长4%和3%。
Deposits grew at a slower pace of 3.6% YoY, with a notable increase in current account savings accounts (CASA) at 5% YoY compared to fixed deposits at 4% YoY. This resulted in a higher loan-to-deposit ratio of 88%, up from 86% a year ago, and a CASA ratio of 31.3%, reflecting improved liquidity within the system.
存款同比增长速率较慢，为3.6%，而活期账户储蓄账户（CASA）在同比增长5%的情况下明显增加，相比之下定期存款增长4%。这导致贷款与存款比率提高至88%，比一年前的86%有所上升，CASA比率为31.3%，反映出系统内流动性改善。
Asset quality remained robust, with a system gross impaired loan (GIL) ratio declining to 1.51% in November 2024 from 1.69% the previous year. Improvements were seen in the manufacturing (13% YoY), mining (18% YoY), and education and health (13% YoY) sectors. Household GILs also fell by 6% YoY, contributing to the healthy overall credit environment.
资产质量保持强劲，系统毛不良贷款（GIL）比率在2024年11月降至1.51%，低于去年的1.69%。在制造业（同比13%）、矿业（同比18%）和教育与健康（同比13%）板块都看到改善。家庭GIL也同比下降6%，为健康的整体信用环境贡献了力量。
RHB Research noted that capital adequacy ratios remained stable, with the common equity tier-1 ratio and total capital ratio standing at 14.4% and 17.9%, respectively. SME loans also showed resilience, with an 8% YoY growth and a stable GIL ratio of 2.99%.
RHb研究指出，资本充足率保持稳定，普通股一级资本比率和总资本比率分别为14.4%和17.9%。中小板贷款也显示出韧性，年同比增长8%，且GIL比率稳定在2.99%。
The research house believes the banking sector's fundamentals remain solid, driven by robust loan growth and healthy asset quality. However, they caution that the loan growth trajectory will depend on the broader economic environment and lending activity in the coming months.
研究机构认为，银行板块的基本面仍然稳健，主要受强劲的贷款增长和健康的资产质量驱动。然而，他们警告称，贷款增长的轨迹将取决于未来几个月的更广泛经济环境和放贷活动。
