Stable Outlook For Banking In 2025 With 5.9% Net Profit Growth Forecast
Stable Outlook For Banking In 2025 With 5.9% Net Profit Growth Forecast
With expectations of stable economic growth momentum, steady bank margins and relatively benign credit costs, Maybank IB projects a stable operating profit and net profit growth of 5.9% respectively in 2025E, for the banks under its coverage. ROAEs are projected to average 10.5% and dividend yields of >5% provide support. Top picks include AMMB, CIMB and PBK.
由于预期经济增长势头稳定，银行利润率稳定以及相对温和的信贷成本，Maybank Ib预计其覆盖的银行在2025E的营业利润和净利润分别将实现5.9%的稳定增长。ROAE预计平均为10.5%，且超过5%的股息收益率提供支持。重点推荐包括AMMb、CIMb和PBk。
Operating and net profit growth of 5.9%
Against the group's GDP growth expectations of 4.9% in 2025E, the house forecasts domestic loan growth of 5.5%, led by a pick-up in business loans. Deposit competition is expected to be more rational, and with expectations of no OPR cuts, Maybank IB expects NIMs to be stable. NOII growth is likely to taper off amid lower forex and bond market volatility, especially
since US Fed rate cuts are expected to be more gradual. Credit costs, nevertheless, are expected to remain fairly benign amid sustained economic momentum and the availability of management overlay buffers at most banks. It also forecasts aggregate 2025E operating profit and net profit growth of 5.9% respectively, as well as an average ROE of 10.5%.
营业利润和净利润增长5.9%
根据该集团对2025E年4.9% GDP增长的预期，预计国内贷款增长为5.5%，主要由商业贷款的回升推动。存款竞争预计将更加理性，且预计不会降息，Maybank Ib预计NIM将保持稳定。受外汇和债券市场波动性降低的影响，NOII增长可能会减缓，尤其是
由于预计美国联邦储备局的降息将更加渐进。然而，考虑到经济持续增长且大多数银行可用的管理缓冲，信贷成本预计仍保持相对温和。它还预计2025E年整体营业利润和净利润将分别增长5.9%，ROE平均值为10.5%。
Valuations still undemanding
Banking sector PERs (on a one-year forward rolling basis) have been on the decline since hitting a peak of 14x in July 2019, just before the pandemic. Valuations recovered somewhat in 2024, and average about 10.1x currently. Even so, valuations are still below the long-term (since Jan 2009) mean of 11.3x. We find that all banking stocks are currently trading below their historical mean PER valuations, with HLBK and PBK at around -1SD to mean.
估值仍然不高
银行业的市盈率（基于滚动的一年前瞻性）自2019年7月达到14倍的峰值以来一直在下降，那时正值疫情发生之前。估值在2024年略有恢复，目前平均约为10.1倍。尽管如此，估值仍低于自2009年1月以来的长期均值11.3倍。我们发现，所有银行股票目前的交易均低于其历史平均市盈率估值，HLBk和PBk的估值约为平均水平的-1标准差。
Top 3 picks – AMMB, CIMB & PBK
The house has a BUY call on ABMB, AMMB, CIMB, HLBK, HLFG and PBK but the top 3 picks would be AMMB, CIMB and PBK. AMMB's focus on proactive funding cost management and business banking operations should contribute to growth momentum, as it strives for higher dividend payouts. CIMB's operations in Indonesia and Singapore are strong contributors, while a turnaround of CIMB Thai would enhance earnings. Public Bank is well-managed and its MYR1.5b management overlays should keep credit costs low. The acquisition of LPI Capital enhances non-interest income and Maybank IB thinks that concerns over a share overhang are overblown.
重点推荐前三名 – AMMb，CIMb及PBK
该公司对ABMb、AMMb、CIMb、HLBk、HLFG和PBk给予买入评级，但重点推荐的前三名为AMMb、CIMb和PBk。AMMB注重积极的资金成本管理和商业银行业务将有助于增长势头，因为其力求提高股息支付率。CIMB在印度尼西亚和新加坡的业务是强有力的贡献者，而CIMB Thai的扭转将提升收益。大众银行的管理良好，其管理缓冲资金达15亿MYR，应该能保持信贷成本低。对LPI Capital的收购提升了非利息收入，Maybank Ib认为对股份稀释的担忧被夸大了。
