Analyst Says It's 'Unusual' For 'Santa Claus Rally' To Fizzle Out, But That Was The Case Last Year Too: 'Anything Is Possible' On Wall Street
Analyst Says It's 'Unusual' For 'Santa Claus Rally' To Fizzle Out, But That Was The Case Last Year Too: 'Anything Is Possible' On Wall Street
The absence of the traditional "Santa Claus rally" has caught the attention of financial experts. This rally, typically observed at the end of the year, has not materialized, prompting discussions among analysts.
传统的“圣诞老人反弹”缺席引起了金融专家的关注。通常在年底观察到的这一反弹并未出现，这引发了分析师之间的讨论。
What Happened: Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, noted the "unusual" absence of the Santa Claus rally, a trend often seen at year-end, Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. Historically, when the S&P 500 experienced this rally, it averaged a 10.4% gain in the new year, based on CFRA Research data since 1945.
发生了什么：Janney Montgomery Scott的首席投资策略师Mark Luschini指出“异常”的圣诞老人反弹缺失，《华尔街日报》周四报道。历史上，当标普500指数经历这一反弹时，基于CFRA研究自1945年以来的数据，新年平均上涨10.4%。
Even without a year-end rally, the S&P 500 generally sees an average annual gain of 5.7%. However, in 2024, the index returned over 23%, breaking an eight-year streak of aligning with this trend.
即使没有年末反弹，标普500通常也会看到平均年增幅为5.7%。然而，在2024年，该指数的回报超过了23%，打破了与这一趋势对齐的八年记录。
Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners, said, "It's markets, right? So anything is possible," said Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners.
GammaRoad Capital Partners的管理合伙人Jordan Rizzuto说：“市场就是这样，对吧？所以任何事情都有可能。”
Why It Matters: Santa Rally fizzling out is not a new phenomenon. 2023 experienced a similar instance with market analyst Martin Tillier highlighted this in his op-ed, noting significant losses at the start of 2024.
重要性：圣诞反弹的消失并不是新现象。2023年也经历了类似的情况，市场分析师Martin Tillier在他的专栏中强调，2024年初出现了重大损失。
Traditionally, the Santa Claus rally refers to stock market gains during the last five trading days of one year and the first two of the next. However, 2024 saw a deviation from the pattern, with futures signaling further declines, as reported by Nasdaq.
传统上，圣诞老人反弹指的是在一年最后五个交易日及下一个年份的前两个交易日的股市涨幅。然而，2024年偏离了这一模式，期货信号显示进一步下滑，纳斯达克报道了这一情况。
Tiller suggested that the rally's absence might be due to market expectations already factoring in anticipated good news for the first half of the year. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts were believed to bolster the rally, but the market's pullback suggested otherwise.
Tillier建议反弹缺失可能是由于市场预期已将预期中的好消息计入2024年上半年的原因。人们认为，联邦储备银行预计的降息将会促进反弹，但市场的回调则暗示情况并非如此。
The absence of the Santa Claus rally has raised questions about its impact on the market. In December, the S&P 500 index experienced a 14% increase, buoyed by a dovish Federal Reserve. However, a sudden 1.4% drop left investors puzzled.
圣诞老人反弹的缺失引发了人们对其对市场影响的质疑。在12月，标普500指数经历了14%的增长，受到温和的联邦储备支持。然而，突然的1.4%下跌让投资者感到困惑。
Concerns about the potential disruption of the Santa Claus rally were also highlighted by Lawrence G. McMillan, a seasoned trader. He warned of a possible "Grinch pinch" impacting this seasonal market phenomenon. Despite positive market indicators, McMillan cautioned that the market remains within a broad trading range, with significant resistance and support levels.
关于圣诞老人反弹可能遭遇干扰的担忧也得到了经验丰富的交易员劳伦斯·G·麦克米兰的强调。他警告称可能出现"格林奇夹击"，影响这一季节性市场现象。尽管市场指标积极，麦克米兰仍然警告市场仍处于一个广泛的交易区间内，存在显著的支撑位和压力位。
Price Action: According to Benzinga Pro, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) dropped 2.91% in the past month, while Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) was down 0.79% during the same period.
价格走势：根据Benzinga Pro的数据显示，SPDR 标普500指数ETF（纽交所：SPY）在过去一个月下跌了2.91%，而纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（纳斯达克：QQQ）在同一期间下跌了0.79%。
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免责声明：此内容部分由Benzinga Neuro生成，并由Benzinga编辑审核和发布。
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