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Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) Sheds US$90m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Three Years

Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) Sheds US$90m, Company Earnings and Investor Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for Past Three Years

科尔士(纽交所:KSS)损失9000万美元,公司的收益和投资者回报在过去三年中一直在下降。
Simply Wall St ·  01/02 20:49

If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the long term shareholders of Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 71% drop in the share price over that period. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 47% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 28% in the last three months.

如果你喜欢投资股票,你一定会买入一些输家。但是,科尔公司(纽约证券交易所代码:KSS)的长期股东在过去三年中出现了不幸的挤兑情况。遗憾的是,在此期间,他们不得不应对股价下跌71%。最近的消息并不令人欣慰,股价在一年内下跌了47%。最近跌势加速,股价在过去三个月中下跌了28%。

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

鉴于过去一周对股东的处境艰难,让我们研究一下基本面,看看能学到什么。

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

不可否认的是,市场有时是有效的,但价格并不总是能反映基本的业务表现。评估公司情绪变化的一种有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。

During five years of share price growth, Kohl's moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.

在五年的股价增长中,科尔从亏损转为盈利。这通常会被视为利好,因此我们惊讶地看到股价下跌。因此,值得研究其他指标来了解股价走势。

Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. However, the weak share price might be related to the fact revenue has been disappearing at a rate of 4.8% each year, over three years. This could have some investors worried about the longer term growth potential (or lack thereof).

鉴于股息支付的健康状况,我们怀疑股息是否令市场担忧。但是,股价疲软可能与三年来收入每年以4.8%的速度消失有关。这可能会让一些投资者担心长期增长潜力(或缺乏增长潜力)。

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

你可以在下面看到收入和收入如何随着时间的推移而变化(点击图片发现确切的数值)。

big
NYSE:KSS Earnings and Revenue Growth January 2nd 2025
纽约证券交易所:KSS 收益和收入增长 2025 年 1 月 2 日

Kohl's is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

科尔是一只知名股票,有大量分析师报道,这表明未来增长有一定的可见性。鉴于我们有相当多的分析师预测,这张描绘共识估计的免费图表可能值得一看。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kohl's the TSR over the last 3 years was -64%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了衡量股价回报率外,投资者还应考虑股东总回报率(TSR)。尽管股价回报率仅反映股价的变化,但股东总回报率包括股息的价值(假设已进行再投资)以及任何折扣融资或分拆的收益。可以公平地说,股东总回报率为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的画面。我们注意到,科尔过去3年的股东总回报率为-64%,好于上述股价回报率。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧是没有好处的!

A Different Perspective

不同的视角

Investors in Kohl's had a tough year, with a total loss of 41% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Kohl's is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

科尔的投资者经历了艰难的一年,总亏损了41%(包括股息),而市场涨幅约为26%。即使是优质股票的股价有时也会下跌,但我们希望在过于感兴趣之前看到企业基本指标的改善。不幸的是,去年的表现可能预示着尚未解决的挑战,因为它比过去五年中10%的年化亏损还要糟糕。我们意识到罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说过,投资者应该 “在街头流血时买入”,但我们警告说,投资者应首先确保他们购买的是高质量的企业。我发现将长期股价视为业务绩效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正获得见解,我们还需要考虑其他信息。即便如此,请注意,科尔在我们的投资分析中显示了两个警告信号,其中一个信号很重要...

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

当然,通过寻找其他地方,你可能会找到一项不错的投资。因此,看看这份我们预计收益将增长的免费公司名单。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报率。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。华尔街只是没有持有上述任何股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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