Deutsche Bank's 2025 Delivery Estimates for Chinese EV Trio: Nio 450,000, Xpeng 400,000, Li Auto 700,000
Deutsche Bank's 2025 Delivery Estimates for Chinese EV Trio: Nio 450,000, Xpeng 400,000, Li Auto 700,000
Nio Inc delivered 221,970 vehicles in 2024, including 201,209 under the Nio main brand and 20,761 under the Onvo sub-brand.
- Deutsche Bank expects Nio to deliver 450,000 units in 2025, double the 221,970 units it delivered in 2024.
- They expect Xpeng to deliver 400,000 units in 2025, up 110 percent from 190,068 units in 2024.
- Li Auto is expected to deliver 700,000 units in 2025, up 40 percent from 500,508 units in 2024.
- 德意志银行预计，蔚来将在2025年交付45万辆，是其在2024年交付的221,970辆的两倍。
- 他们预计，小鹏汽车将在2025年交付40万辆，较2024年的190,068辆增长110％。
- 理想汽车预计将在2025年交付70万辆，较2024年的500,508辆增长40％。
Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to all see strong growth in 2025, driven primarily by new models.
德意志银行的分析师预计，蔚来（纽约证券交易所代码：NIO）、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）在2025年都将实现强劲增长，这主要是由新车型推动的。
Nio's full-year deliveries in 2025 is expected to double year-on-year to about 450,000 units, analyst Wang Bin's team said in a research note yesterday.
分析师王斌的团队昨天在一份研究报告中表示，蔚来汽车2025年的全年交付量预计将同比翻一番，达到约45万辆。
The team first mentioned the same forecast after Nio reported third-quarter earnings in late November, using the same full-year 2025 sales assumptions as Nio's guidance.
在蔚来于11月下旬公布第三季度财报后，该团队首次提到了同样的预测，使用的2025年全年销售假设与蔚来的指导相同。
Nio Inc delivered 221,970 vehicles in 2024, including 201,209 under the Nio main brand and 20,761 under the Onvo sub-brand.
蔚来公司在2024年交付了221,970辆汽车，其中包括蔚来主品牌的201,209辆和Onvo子品牌下的20,761辆汽车。
Wang's team expects Onvo to deliver about 220,000 units in 2025, including 180,000 units of its first model, the L60.
王的团队预计，Onvo将在2025年交付约22万辆，其中包括其首款车型L60的18万辆。
The team attributes the Onvo brand's likely decent growth in 2025 to an expanded retail store network, an expanded product portfolio, and improved battery swap capabilities.
该团队将Onvo品牌在2025年可能实现的可观增长归因于零售商店网络的扩大、产品组合的扩大以及电池更换能力的提高。
They expect Onvo to launch the six-seat large SUV L90, codenamed BLANC, in the third quarter of 2025 and add the five-seat SUV L80, codenamed ROSA, in the fourth quarter.
他们预计，Onvo将在2025年第三季度推出代号为BLANC的六座大型SUV L90，并在第四季度增加代号为ROSA的五座SUV L80。
The team's sales forecast for the Nio brand for the full year 2025 is to grow by only 10 percent year-on-year to about 223,000 units, as the Nio brand aims to prioritize profitability over volume growth in 2025.
该团队对蔚来品牌2025年全年的销量预测将仅同比增长10％，达到约22.3万辆，因为蔚来品牌的目标是在2025年优先考虑盈利能力而不是销量增长。
They expect the Nio brand to refresh five products in the second half of 2025, such as the next-generation ES7 SUV, ES6 SUV, EC6 SUV, ET5 sedan and ET5 Touring.
他们预计，蔚来品牌将在2025年下半年更新五款产品，例如下一代ES7 SUV、ES6 SUV、EC6 SUV、ET5轿车和ET5 Touring。
In particular, the team expects Nio to upgrade the ES7 to a ultra-large size six-seater SUV.
特别是，该团队预计蔚来会将ES7升级为超大尺寸的六人座SUV。
In another research note yesterday, Deutsche Bank expects Xpeng to deliver 400,000 units for the full year 2025.
在昨天的另一份研究报告中，德意志银行预计，小鹏汽车将在2025年全年交付40万辆。
The forecast represents a year-on-year growth of about 110 percent, considering that Xpeng delivered 190,068 vehicles in the full year of 2024.
考虑到小鹏汽车在2024年全年交付了190,068辆汽车，该预测同比增长约110％。
Xpeng's delivery growth in 2025 will be largely attributed to a strong order backlog for the Mona M03 and P7+, as well as a strong new product plan, Wang's team said.
王的团队表示，小鹏汽车在2025年的交付量增长将在很大程度上归因于Mona M03和P7+的强劲订单积压，以及强劲的新产品计划。
The company plans to launch at least four new products in 2025, with at least one new product launch per quarter, the team noted.
该团队指出，该公司计划在2025年推出至少四款新产品，每季度至少推出一款新产品。
These new products include its first extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) model, a large SUV (sport utility vehicle) to be launched in the fourth quarter, the team said.
该团队表示，这些新产品包括其首款增程式电动汽车（EREV）车型，即将在第四季度推出的大型SUV（运动型多功能车）。
In addition, Xpeng will update existing products such as the G6 SUV and G9 SUV with the latest technology, the team noted.
此外，该团队指出，小鹏将使用最新技术更新现有产品，例如G6 SUV和G9 SUV。
Xpeng aims to break even by the end of 2025, when it could sell more than 40,000 units a month, Deutsche Bank said.
德意志银行表示，小鹏的目标是在2025年底之前实现收支平衡，届时其月销量可能超过40,000辆。
The team expects Li Auto to deliver 700,000 units in 2025, representing a 40 percent increase relative to the 500,508 units delivered in 2024.
该团队预计，理想汽车将在2025年交付70万辆，与2024年的500,508辆相比增长40％。
They expect Li Auto to deliver 630,000 EREVs and 70,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2025.
他们预计，理想汽车将在2025年交付63万辆电动汽车和7万辆纯电动汽车（BEV）。
Li Auto currently sells four EREVs, the Li L6, Li L7, Li L8 and Li L9, as well as the all-electric Li Mega MPV (multi-purpose vehicle).
理想汽车目前销售四款电动汽车，Li L6、Li L7、Li L8和Li L9，以及全电动Li Mega MPV（多功能车）。
Deutsche Bank expects Li Auto to launch the i6 large pure-electric SUV in mid-2025, with a price range of RMB 200,000 ($27,400) to RMB 250,000.
德意志银行预计，理想汽车将在2025年中期推出i6大型纯电动SUV，价格区间为20万元人民币（合27,400美元）至25万元人民币。
This price range will be a greenfield market for Li Auto's portfolio, as all of its products currently only cover the RMB 250,000+ price market, the team noted.
该团队指出，这个价格区间将成为理想汽车产品组合的绿地市场，因为其所有产品目前仅涵盖人民币25万元以上的价格市场。
They also anticipate that Li Auto could launch an ultra-large-size SUV in the second half of 2025.
他们还预计，理想汽车可能在2025年下半年推出超大型SUV。
($1 = RMB 7.2998)
($1 = 人民币 7.2998)
Deutsche Bank explains why Nio saw strong deliveries in Dec
德意志银行解释了蔚来在12月实现强劲交付的原因
