US Manufacturing Activity Tops Expectations In December, Rises To 9-Month Highs
US Manufacturing Activity Tops Expectations In December, Rises To 9-Month Highs
However, the index remains below the critical 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting the ninth consecutive month — and the 26 out of the last 27 — in contraction territory.After much of 2024 marked by contraction, there are now brighter signs emerging from the tunnel of the U.S. manufacturing sector.
在2024年的大部分时间里都处于收缩状态，现在美国制造业板块的隧道中出现了更加明亮的迹象。
Data revealed Friday from the Institute for Supply Management showed that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November and surpassing economists' expectations of 48.4%.
周五，供应管理协会公布的数据表明，12月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）升至49.3%，高于11月份的48.4%，超出经济学家的预计48.4%。
The outcome marks the strongest reading since April 2024 and second consecutive month of improvement in the PMI, a trend not seen since September 2023.
这一结果标志着自2024年4月份以来最强的读数，也是PMI连续第二个月改善，这是自2023年9月份以来未曾见过的趋势。
However, the index remains below the critical 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting the ninth consecutive month — and the 26 out of the last 27 — in contraction territory.
然而，该指数仍低于分隔扩张与收缩的关键50%的门槛，反映出已经连续第九个月——以及最近27个月中的26个月——处于收缩区间。
Key Manufacturing Metrics Show Encouraging Trends
关键制造业指标显示出令人鼓舞的趋势
While the headline PMI remains in contraction, some sub-indices suggest that momentum may be turning:
尽管总体PMI仍处于收缩状态，但一些子指数表明，势头可能正在转变：
- New Orders Index: Climbed to 52.5% in December, up from 50.4% in November. This is the second straight month in expansion territory after seven months of contraction.
- Production Index: Jumped to 50.3%, up significantly from November's 46.8%, marking its return to expansion after six months of contraction.
- Prices Index: Rose from 50.3% in November to 52.5%, indicating increasing prices paid by manufacturers.
- Backlog of Orders Index: Improved from 41.8% in November to 45.9%, though still below 50%.
- Employment Index: Fell to 45.3% from November's 48.1%, reflecting continued de-staffing in the sector.
- 新订单指数：12月份升至52.5%，高于11月份的50.4%。这是连续第二个月处于扩张区间，此前经历了七个月的收缩。
- 生产指数：跃升至50.3%，相比于11月份的46.8%大幅上升，标志着在经历六个月收缩后再次回归扩张。
- 价格指数：从11月的50.3%上升至52.5%，表明制造商支付的价格在增加。
- 订单积压指数：从11月的41.8%改善至45.9%，尽管仍低于50%。
- 就业指数：从11月的48.1%降至45.3%，反映出该板块继续裁员。
"U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in December, but at a slower rate compared to November. Demand showed signs of improving, while output stabilized and inputs stayed accommodative," Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, wrote in the report.
"美国制造业活动在12月再次收缩，但收缩速度较11月有所放缓。需求显示改善迹象，产出稳定，投入保持宽松，" ISm制造业业务调查委员会主席蒂莫西·菲奥雷在报告中写道。
Fiore also highlighted that de-staffing trends may soon end, and the percentage of gross domestic product contracting in manufacturing has decreased from 66% in November to 52% in December — a sign that the slowdown is becoming less broad-based.
菲奥雷还指出，裁员趋势可能很快会结束，制造业国内生产总值收缩的百分比从11月的66%下降至12月的52%——这表明放缓的趋势正在变得不那么普遍。
Market Reactions
市场反应
The U.S. dollar rebounded against major currencies, supported by the improving economic data. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), a proxy for dollar strength, trimmed its session losses to 0.1%.
美国美元对主要货币反弹，得益于经济数据的改善。景顺 Db 美元指数看好基金可交易ETF（纽交所：UUP）作为美元强势的替代品，将当天的损失缩减至0.1%。
The greenback has now rallied 9% since late September, significantly outperforming the broader stock market, which is up only 3% during the same period.
自9月底以来，美元已经上涨了9%，显著跑赢了同期仅上涨3%的大盘。
The S&P 500 — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) — initially rose but gave back gains, weighed down by higher Treasury yields.
标普500指数——由SPDR 标普500指数ETF Trust（纽交所:SPY）跟踪——最初上涨，但由于国债收益率上升而回吐了涨幅。
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 4.80%, reversing overnight declines, and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) slipped 0.2%, holding near nine-month lows.
30年期国债的收益率上升至4.80%，扭转了过夜下滑，而20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares（纳斯达克:TLT）下跌0.2%，处于接近九个月的低点。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
