Janet Yellen's Short-Term Debt Strategy Sparks Warnings For Trump Administration: 'Your Costs Explode And Buyers Could Balk,' Says Expert
Janet Yellen's Short-Term Debt Strategy Sparks Warnings For Trump Administration: 'Your Costs Explode And Buyers Could Balk,' Says Expert
"Traders will demand much higher rates to issue long-term debt, which will blow out interest rates on credit cards, mortgages etc. That means recession or worse," Gasparino wrote on X, formerly Twitter.U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's strategy of relying heavily on short-term debt financing could create significant market turbulence as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, according to financial experts and market data.
美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦依赖短期债务融资的策略可能会在当选总统特朗普准备就职时造成重大市场动荡，金融专家和市场数据表示。
What Happened: Charles Gasparino, New York Post columnist, warned that Yellen's approach of rolling over short-term debt instead of issuing longer-dated bonds has "masked the severity" of the federal deficit problem while potentially setting up a crisis for the incoming administration.
发生了什么：纽约邮报专栏作家查尔斯·加斯帕里诺警告说，耶伦通过滚动短期债务而不是发行长期债券的方法"掩盖了"联邦赤字问题的严重性，同时可能为即将上任的政府设置了危机。
The Treasury Department under Yellen has shifted approximately 30% of government borrowing to short-term securities, up from 15% in 2023, according to analysis from Bear Traps Report. This strategy helped keep interest rates artificially low during Biden's term but could backfire as these debts need refinancing at higher rates.
根据Bear Traps Report的分析，耶伦领导下的财政部已将约30%的政府借款转向短期证券，较2023年的15%有所上升。这一策略在拜登任期内帮助维持了利率的人为低位，但随着这些债务需要以更高的利率进行再融资，可能会适得其反。
"Traders will demand much higher rates to issue long-term debt, which will blow out interest rates on credit cards, mortgages etc. That means recession or worse," Gasparino wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
加斯帕里诺在X（前推特）上写道："交易员将要求更高的利率来发行长期债务，这将导致信用卡、抵押贷款等的利率飙升。这意味着衰退或更糟。"
Side note to my column; a few weeks ago I wrote about the other ticking time bomb–Yellen papering the deficit by rolling over short term debt . It's worth noting that the severity of the debt problem has been masked because Yellen didn't issue 10-year...
— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) January 5, 2025
关于我的专栏的附注；几周前我写过另一个定时炸弹——耶伦通过滚动短期债务来填补赤字。值得注意的是，由于耶伦没有发行10年期债券，债务问题的严重性一直被掩盖。
— 查尔斯·加斯帕里诺 (@CGasparino) 2025年1月5日
Market reactions are already visible. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) saw record outflows of $5.5 billion in December, while 30-year Treasury yields surged 40 basis points to 4.80%, reaching their highest level in over a year.
市场反应已显现。20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares（NASDAQ:TLT）在12月份录得了55亿的创纪录流出，而30年期国债收益率飙升了40个基点，达到了4.80%，为一年以来的最高水平。
Why It Matters: Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said "Bond vigilantes are sending a loud warning message" about fiscal concerns under the incoming administration. The 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from 3.6% in September to 4.6% in late December, a 25% increase that could significantly impact stock market performance.
这很重要：耶尔丹研究公司总统埃德·耶尔丹表示，"债券警示者正在发出响亮的警告信息"，关于即将上任的政府的财政问题。10年期国债收益率从9月份的3.6%跃升至12月底的4.6%，涨幅达到25%，这可能会显著影响股市表现。
The situation presents an immediate challenge for Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who will need to address both the rolling short-term debt and a federal budget deficit that has contributed to $36 trillion in total government debt.
这一情况对特朗普提名的财政部长候选人斯科特·贝森提出了直接挑战，他需要解决滚动的短期债务和导致36万亿总政府债务的联邦预算赤字。
"Your costs explode and buyers could balk," Gasparino cautioned, highlighting the potential double threat of higher refinancing costs and reduced market appetite for U.S. debt securities.
“你的成本会暴涨，买家可能会退缩，”盖斯帕里诺警告道，强调了再融资成本上升和美国债务证券市场需求下降的双重威胁。
- Israel Englander's Millennium Management Dumps Nvidia, Loads Up On Broadcom — Here's What The $70 Billion Hedge Fund Sees
- 以色列英格兰人的千禧管理公司抛售英伟达，增持博通——这个700亿的对冲基金看到了什么
Image via World Bank / Brandon Payne
图片来源：世界银行 / 布兰登·佩恩
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
免责声明：本内容部分使用人工智能工具生成，并经Benzinga编辑审核发布。
