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Is Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) A Risky Investment?

Is Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) A Risky Investment?

Peabody Energy(纽交所:BTU)是一个风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  01/06 20:35

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

由伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李璐直言不讳地说,'最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性资本损失。' 当我们考虑一家公司有多风险时,我们总是喜欢查看它的债务使用情况,因为债务超负荷可能导致破产。 重要的是,Peabody Energy公司(纽交所代码:BTU)确实背负着债务。 但是,股东应该为其债务使用感到担忧吗?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

债务是一种帮助企业增长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还其贷方,那么它就处于贷方的掌控之下。 如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷方可以控制企业。 然而,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低价发行股份,永久稀释股东,只为改善其资产负债表。 然而,通过替换稀释,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率投资于增长的企业的极好工具。 当我们考虑一家公司对债务的使用时,我们首先会将现金和债务一同考虑。

How Much Debt Does Peabody Energy Carry?

Peabody Energy背负多少债务?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Peabody Energy had US$313.4m in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. However, its balance sheet shows it holds US$772.9m in cash, so it actually has US$459.5m net cash.

下图(您可以点击以获取更详细信息)显示,Peabody Energy在2024年9月的债务为31340万美元;与前一年相差不大。 然而,其资产负债表显示它持有77290万美元的现金,所以实际上它的净现金为45950万美元。

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NYSE:BTU Debt to Equity History January 6th 2025
纽交所:BTU债务与股本历史 2025年1月6日

A Look At Peabody Energy's Liabilities

查看Peabody Energy的负债

According to the last reported balance sheet, Peabody Energy had liabilities of US$778.6m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.40b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$772.9m as well as receivables valued at US$304.2m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.10b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

根据最近报告的资产负债表,Peabody Energy的负债为77860万美元,12个月内到期的负债为14亿美元。为了抵消这些义务,它拥有77290万美元的现金,以及30420万美元的应收账款,12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收款的总和多出11亿美元。

Peabody Energy has a market capitalization of US$2.46b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Peabody Energy also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.

Peabody Energy的市值为24.6亿美元,因此如果需要,它很可能筹集资金来改善其资产负债表。但我们绝对需要关注它的债务是否带来过多风险的迹象。尽管它的负债值得关注,但Peabody Energy的现金却超过了债务,因此我们相当有信心它能够安全地管理其债务。

The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Peabody Energy if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 59% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Peabody Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

如果管理层无法阻止去年59%的EBIT削减,其债务的适度可能会对Peabody Energy变得至关重要。当一家公司看到其收益暴跌时,有时它与贷方的关系也会恶化。分析债务时,资产负债表显然是关注的重点。但将来收益比其他任何因素都能判断Peabody Energy保持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您关注未来,可以查看这份免费的报告,显示分析师的利润预测。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Peabody Energy has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the most recent three years, Peabody Energy recorded free cash flow worth 71% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最后,尽管税务人员可能会喜爱会计利润,但贷方只接受真实现金。尽管Peabody Energy的资产负债表上有净现金,但查看它将息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力仍然值得,帮助我们了解它是如何快速增加(或减少)现金余额的。在最近三年中,Peabody Energy记录的自由现金流占EBIT的71%,考虑到自由现金流排除了利息和税项,这大致是正常的。这种真实现金意味着它可以在需要时减少其债务。

Summing Up

总结

While Peabody Energy does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$459.5m. The cherry on top was that in converted 71% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in US$346m. So we are not troubled with Peabody Energy's debt use. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Peabody Energy (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

尽管Peabody Energy的负债超过流动资产,但它的净现金也达到了45950万美元。更重要的是,它将71%的EBIT转化为自由现金流,带来了34600万美元的收入。因此,我们并不担心Peabody Energy的债务使用。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解了大部分债务。但最终,每个公司都可能存在资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们发现了Peabody Energy的5个警告信号(其中1个不应该被忽视!),在你投资之前应该了解这些信号。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

最终,通常更好的是关注没有净负债的公司。你可以访问我们特别列出这些公司的名单(所有公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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