Optimum-MSGN Standoff Could Pressure MSG Networks' Finances: Analyst
Optimum-MSGN Standoff Could Pressure MSG Networks' Finances: Analyst
Altice USA said this "all or nothing" stance would have increased cable bills, forcing most customers to pay for content they don't watch.JP Morgan analyst David Karnovsky shared views on the impact of the Optimum-MSGN carriage battle on Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE:SPHR) and Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (NYSE:MSGS).
摩根大通分析师大卫·卡尔诺夫斯基就Optimum-MSGN的马车之战对Sphere Entertainment Co的影响分享了看法。（纽约证券交易所代码：SPHR）和麦迪逊广场花园体育公司（纽约证券交易所代码：MSGS）。
As per a press release dated January 1 from Optimum, a brand of Altice USA, Inc. (NYSE:ATUS), the carriage agreement between Optimum and MSG Networks expired on December 31, 2024.
根据Altice USA, Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：ATUS）旗下品牌Optimum于1月1日发布的新闻稿，Optimum与MSG Networks之间的运输协议已于2024年12月31日到期。
Altice USA said, despite weeks of negotiations, MSG Networks insisted on high programming fees and mandated that its channels be available to most video subscribers.
Altice USA表示，尽管进行了数周的谈判，但MSG Networks坚持收取高额的节目费用，并要求其频道可供大多数视频订阅者使用。
Altice USA said this "all or nothing" stance would have increased cable bills, forcing most customers to pay for content they don't watch.
Altice USA表示，这种 “要么全有要么全无” 的立场会增加有线电视账单，迫使大多数客户为他们不看的内容付费。
Optimum (likely Sphere Entertainment's top customer) accounts for 14% of SPHR's FY24 revenue and 27% of MSG Networks' revenue, says the analyst.
分析师表示，Optimum（可能是Sphere Entertainment的最大客户）占SPHR24财年收入的14％，占MSG Networks收入的27％。
For Madison Square Garden Sports, which owns the Knicks and Rangers, Karnovsky writes that the bankruptcy for the RSN could reduce local rights fees and related cash flow.
对于拥有尼克斯队和流浪者队的麦迪逊广场花园体育来说，卡尔诺夫斯基写道，RSN的破产可能会减少地方版权费和相关的现金流。
The analyst considers it unlikely that the largest MVPD in a competitive video market would permanently forgo content from four major sports teams, but the possibility of a loss of carriage cannot be completely dismissed. The analyst highlights MSGN has long not been available on DISH, while Comcast dropped the channels in 2021.
分析师认为，竞争激烈的视频市场中最大的MVPD不太可能永久放弃四支主要运动队的内容，但无法完全排除运输中断的可能性。这位分析师强调，MSGN早已无法在DISH上线，而康卡斯特在2021年放弃了这些频道。
Karnovsky estimates MSG Networks' FY25 adjusted operating income to be $113 million, but losing the Optimum carriage would erase segment profits. Even a renegotiated deal at lower rates would further pressure MSG Networks' financials.
卡尔诺夫斯基估计，MSG Networks25财年的调整后营业收入为1.13亿美元，但失去Optimum运输将抹去该细分市场的利润。即使以较低的利率重新谈判协议也会进一步给MSG Networks的财务带来压力。
Meanwhile, the analyst says that for Sphere Entertainment, the loss of Optimum carriage could be a net positive, potentially pushing MSG Networks toward a full default scenario and clearing over $700 million in non-recourse debt from the company's balance sheet—boosting its valuation.
同时，分析师表示，对于Sphere Entertainment而言，Optimum运费的损失可能是净利好的，这有可能将MSG Networks推向全面违约情形，并从公司的资产负债表中清理超过7亿美元的无追索权债务，从而提高其估值。
The analyst maintained an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $240 on Madison Square Garden Sports.
该分析师维持对麦迪逊广场花园体育的增持评级，预计股价为240美元。
Meanwhile, Karnovsky reiterated the price forecast of $57 and an Overweight rating on Sphere Entertainment.
同时，卡尔诺夫斯基重申了57美元的价格预测和Sphere Entertainment的增持评级。
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Image via Shutterstock.
图片来自 Shutterstock。
