share_log

Is This Warren Buffett Stock a Good Buy Right Now?

Is This Warren Buffett Stock a Good Buy Right Now?

现在这只沃伦·巴菲特的股票值得买入吗?
The Motley Fool ·  01/06 10:45

When Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals a new position, investors take notice. The Oracle of Omaha's recent US$550 million bet on Domino's Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) might seem modest by Berkshire's standards, but it speaks volumes about the pizza giant's potential.

当沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦披露新头寸时,投资者会格外关注。奥马哈的 oracle 最近在达美乐披萨(纳斯达克:DPZ)上下注55000万美元,对伯克希尔而言看似微不足道,但这反映了这家披萨巨头的潜力。

While many view Domino's as just another fast-food chain, the global powerhouse has transformed into a technology-driven delivery machine serving impressive shareholder returns. Since January 2015, Domino's has returned more than 400% to shareholders in dividend-adjusted gains.

虽然许多人将达美乐视为另一家快餐连锁店,但这家全球巨头已经转型为一家以科技驱动的外卖机器,给股东带来了可观的回报。自2015年1月以来,达美乐已经为股东提供了超过400%的分红调整收益。

With the stock currently trading at a reasonable valuation, let's see if it is the right time to grab a slice of Domino's alongside Buffett.

由于该股票目前的估值合理,让我们看看现在是否是与巴菲特一起分享达美乐的一片。

The bull case for investing in the Warren Buffett stock

投资沃伦·巴菲特股票的看涨案例

Domino's is a tech company that sells pizzas all over the world. In the last 12 months, Domino's has increased sales to US$4.66 billion, up from US$3.6 billion in 2018. However, the company generated less than US$400 million from company-owned stores, while the rest was derived from franchise fees and royalties, ad sales, and supply chain revenue.

达美乐是一家科技公司,销售覆盖全球的披萨。在过去的12个月里,达美乐的销售额增加到46.6亿美元,从2018年的36亿美元上涨。然而,该公司从自营店生成的收入不足40000万美元,其余部分来自特许经营费、版权费、广告销售和供应链收入。

Moreover, it generates a sizeable portion of its sales from digital channels, and these technological investments have allowed it to create a formidable moat. Domino's emphasized that its mobile application, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered delivery optimization, and GPS tracking system are driving operating efficiency and customer loyalty.

此外,它的销售相当大一部分来自数字渠道,这些技术投资使其建立了强大的护城河。达美乐强调,其移动应用程序、人工智能(AI)驱动的配送优化和GPS追踪系统正在推动营业效率和客户忠诚度。

With more than 90% of franchised stores, Domino's has a capital-light business model, enabling it to report an operating margin of over 18%.

达美乐拥有超过90%的特许经营店,采用资本轻型的商业模式,使其报告的营业利润率超过18%。

Notably, the company stated that its growth story is far from over, as it remains focused on expanding into high-growth markets such as India and China. Over the years, Warren Buffett has invested in businesses that can scale efficiently, and this franchise-based model fits that bill perfectly.

值得注意的是,该公司表示其增长故事远未结束,因为它仍然专注于扩展到印度和中国等高增长市场。多年来,沃伦·巴菲特投资于能够有效扩展的业务,而这种基于特许经营的模式完全符合这一标准。

Additionally, while third-party delivery apps have disrupted the food industry, Domino's has stubbornly maintained its in-house delivery model. Once questioned by Wall Street, the strategy is proving successful as it gives the fast-food heavyweight complete control over the customer experience while protecting margins from delivery app fees.

此外,尽管第三方配送应用破坏了餐饮行业,达美乐仍然坚持其内部配送模式。曾受到华尔街质疑的这一策略正在获得成功,因为它使快餐巨头能够完全控制客户体验,同时保护营业利润率,避免配送应用费用。

A strong performance in Q3 of 2024

2024年第三季度表现强劲

While several restaurants are struggling with falling traffic, Domino's saw same-store sales rise by 3% year over year and retail sales rise by 6.6% year over year in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. The company explained that its "Hungry for MORE" strategy, especially its focus on value offerings, is paying off.

尽管一些餐厅在顾客流量下降中挣扎,达美乐在2024年第三季度(Q3)同店销售同比增长了3%,零售销售同比增长了6.6%。该公司解释说,其"渴望更多"策略,尤其是对价值产品的关注,正在获得回报。

Moreover, its reward program continues to attract new members and drive repeat purchases, while its partnership with Uber accounts for 2.7% of U.S. sales.

此外,其奖励计划继续吸引新会员并推动重复购买,而其与Uber的合作占美国销售的2.7%。

However, international markets face headwinds with Domino's tempering estimates of same-store sales through 2025. Despite near-term headwinds, it has projected global retail sales growth in 2024 and is maintaining its 8% operating profit growth target.

然而,国际市场面临压力,达美乐调低了2025年前同店销售的预期。尽管短期内有挑战,但它预测2024年全球零售销售将增长,并保持8%的营业利润增长目标。

Analysts tracking the restaurant stock expect adjusted earnings to expand from US$14.66 per share in 2023 to US$20 per share in 2026. So, priced at 22 times forward earnings, DPZ stock might seem expensive. However, its lofty valuation is supported by strong growth estimates.

追踪餐厅股票的分析师预计,调整后每股收益将从2023年的14.66美元增长到2026年的20美元。因此,以22倍的未来收益计算,DPZ股票可能看起来相对昂贵。然而,其高估值得到了强劲增长预期的支持。

Domino's asset-light business allows it to pay shareholders an annual dividend of US$6.04 per share, translating to a forward yield of 1.4%. Its annual dividend expense totals roughly US$220 million and is easily covered by an estimated free cash flow of US$550 million in 2024. Domino's has grown its dividends by 500% in the last decade, significantly enhancing the yield at cost.

达美乐轻资产的业务模式使其能够每年向股东支付每股6.04美元的分红,换算成前瞻收益率为1.4%。其年分红支出总计约为22000万美元,而预计2024年的自由现金流为55000万美元,完全足以覆盖。达美乐在过去十年内将其分红增长了500%,显著提高了投资收益率。

For investors, Domino's combination of market share gains, technological innovation, and strong unit economics might make it a tasty addition to their portfolios — just ask Warren Buffett.

对于投资者而言,达美乐在市场份额增长、科技创新和强劲单元经济学的结合,可能使其成为投资组合中的美味添加品——只需问问沃伦·巴菲特。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发