Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit (SZSE:002134) A Risky Investment?
Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit (SZSE:002134) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Tianjin Printronics Circuit Corporation (SZSE:002134) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
传奇基金经理李录(查理·芒格支持的人)曾说过:‘最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资本的永久损失。’当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢查看其债务的使用情况,因为过度负债可能导致破产。我们注意到天津普林(SZSE:002134)确实在其资产负债表上有债务。但是,更重要的问题是:这笔债务带来了多少风险?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时会变得危险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般来说,债务只有在公司无法轻松偿还时才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过融资还是自身的自由现金流。在最坏的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿还债权人,它就可能破产。然而,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以便撑住其资产负债表。然而,通过替代稀释,债务对于那些需要资本以高收益率投资于增长的企业来说,可以是一种非常好的工具。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先看现金和债务的结合。
What Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit's Debt?
天津普林的债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Tianjin Printronics Circuit had CN¥490.9m of debt, an increase on CN¥76.3m, over one year. However, it does have CN¥130.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥360.4m.
您可以点击下方的图形查看历史数据,但它显示截至2024年9月,天津普林的债务为49090万人民币,比一年前增加了7630万人民币。然而,它有13050万人民币的现金来抵消这部分债务,因此净债务约为36040万人民币。
How Healthy Is Tianjin Printronics Circuit's Balance Sheet?
天津普林的资产负债表健康吗?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Tianjin Printronics Circuit had liabilities of CN¥717.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥486.7m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥130.5m and CN¥408.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥664.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
从最新的资产负债表数据来看,我们可以看到天津普林有71740万人民币的负债在12个月内到期,和48670万人民币的负债在此之后到期。另一方面,它有13050万人民币的现金和40860万人民币的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,其负债总额比现金和短期应收账款总和多出66490万人民币。
Since publicly traded Tianjin Printronics Circuit shares are worth a total of CN¥4.30b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
由于公开交易的天津普林股票总值为43亿人民币,因此这一负债水平似乎不会构成重大威胁。但负债水平足够高,我们确实建议股东继续关注资产负债表。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们通过看净债务与息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及计算其息税前利润(EBIT)如何轻松地覆盖利息费用(利息覆盖)来衡量一家公司相对于其获利能力的债务负担。这样,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量,也考虑了其支付的利率。
Tianjin Printronics Circuit's debt is 3.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.6 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. It is well worth noting that Tianjin Printronics Circuit's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 63% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Tianjin Printronics Circuit will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
天津普林的债务是其EBITDA的3.9倍,EBIT足以覆盖其利息费用6.6倍。综合来看,这表明虽然我们不希望看到债务水平上升,但我们认为它可以处理当前的杠杆。值得注意的是,天津普林的EBIT在过去12个月中像雨后竹子般迅速增长,增长了63%。这将使管理债务变得更容易。分析债务时,资产负债表显然是重点。但你不能完全孤立地看待债务,因为天津普林需要盈利来偿还债务。因此,如果你想了解更多关于其盈利情况,查看其长期盈利趋势的图表可能会很有价值。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Tianjin Printronics Circuit burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润根本无法满足。因此,值得检查有多少EBIT是由自由现金流支持的。在过去三年中,天津普林消耗了大量现金。虽然投资者无疑期望在适当时候逆转这种情况,但这显然意味着它的债务使用更具风险。
Our View
我们的观点
Tianjin Printronics Circuit's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. In particular, we are dazzled with its EBIT growth rate. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Tianjin Printronics Circuit's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Tianjin Printronics Circuit has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
天津普林的EBIt转化为自由现金流在此次分析中是一个真正的负面因素,尽管我们考虑的其他因素要好得多。特别是,我们对其EBIt增长率感到眼花缭乱。当我们考虑上述所有因素时,确实对天津普林的债务使用感到有些谨慎。虽然债务在更高潜在回报方面确实有其好处,但我们认为股东绝对应该考虑债务水平如何使股票变得更加风险。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中 - 实际上远非如此。例如 - 天津普林有3个警告信号我们认为你应该了解。
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
当然,如果你是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,今天就来发现我们独家的净现金成长股票列表。
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