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Here's Why Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (SHSE:600196) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Here's Why Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (SHSE:600196) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

这就是为什么复星医药(集团)(SHSE:600196)承担了显著的债务负担
Simply Wall St ·  01/07 12:53

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600196) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

沃伦·巴菲特曾 famously 说过,‘波动性远非风险的同义词。’ 在审视一家公司风险时,自然要考虑公司的资产负债表,因为当企业倒闭时,债务通常是一个因素。 重要的是,复星医药(集团)有限公司(SHSE:600196)确实有债务。 但这笔债务对股东来说是个问题吗?

When Is Debt A Problem?

何时债务成为问题?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务可以帮助企业,直到企业在用新资本或自由现金流偿还时出现问题。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款方可以控制企业。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是,企业不得不以低价筹集新的股本,从而永久稀释股东。当然,债务的好处是,它通常代表着便宜的资本,特别是当它替代了在能够以高回报率再投资的公司中稀释时。考虑一家公司使用多少债务时,第一件要做的事情是查看它的现金和债务的总和。

What Is Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s Net Debt?

复星医药(集团)的净债务是多少?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) had CN¥32.6b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it also had CN¥15.6b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥16.9b.

下面的图表您可以点击查看更详细的内容,显示复星医药(集团)在2024年9月的债务为326亿人民币;与前一年相仿。 然而,它还有156亿人民币的现金,因此其净债务为169亿人民币。

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SHSE:600196 Debt to Equity History January 7th 2025
SHSE:600196 债务与股本历史 2025年1月7日

How Healthy Is Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s Balance Sheet?

复星医药的资产负债表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) had liabilities of CN¥37.5b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥18.6b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥15.6b in cash and CN¥9.82b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥30.6b.

最新的资产负债表数据显示,复星医药(集团)在一年内有375亿人民币的负债,超过这一时间的负债为186亿人民币。对此,它有156亿人民币的现金和98.2亿人民币的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债比现金和(短期)应收账款的总和多出306亿人民币。

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) has a market capitalization of CN¥59.2b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

复星医药(集团)的市值为592亿人民币,因此如果需要,它很可能会筹集现金来改善资产负债表。但我们绝对需要关注更多的迹象,以了解其债务是否带来了过多的风险。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

为了评估一家公司的债务与其收益的关系,我们计算其净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的比率,以及息税前利润(EBIT)与利息费用的比率(即利息覆盖率)。通过这种方式,我们考虑了债务的绝对数量和所支付的利率。

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s net debt is 3.1 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. If Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 17% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

复星医药(集团)的净债务是其EBITDA的3.1倍,这是一种显著但仍然合理的杠杆水平。但其EBIT大约是利息支出的0.1万倍,暗示公司并没有为维持这种债务水平支付高昂的成本。即使低成本证明不可持续,这也是一个好兆头。如果复星医药(集团)能够保持去年的17%的EBIT增长率,那么它的债务负担将更容易管理。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到最多的债务信息。但最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定复星医药(集团)能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的看法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

但我们的最终考量也很重要,因为公司不能用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要现金。因此,值得检查一下EBIT有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去三年中,复星医药(集团)的自由现金流总整体上出现了显著的负值。虽然投资者无疑期待这一情况将逐渐逆转,但这显然意味着其债务使用的风险更大。

Our View

我们的观点

Neither Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT with ease. We think that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) .

复星医药(集团)将EBIT转换为自由现金流的能力,以及其净债务与EBITDA的比率,都未能让我们对其承受更多债务的能力充满信心。但是好消息是,它似乎能够轻松覆盖其利息支出。我们认为,考虑到上述数据,复星医药(集团)的债务确实使其有些风险。这并不一定是坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报,但这值得注意。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表外的风险。为此,您应该注意我们发现的复星医药(集团)存在的3个警示信号。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

最终,通常更好的是关注没有净负债的公司。你可以访问我们特别列出这些公司的名单(所有公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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