The forecast for the brokers, asset managers, and exchanges sector into 2025 appears promising, with the potential for a third consecutive year of over 20% total returns in the U.S. equity markets. Driving themes across the marketplace include increased capital markets activity, a potential reduction in regulation fostering product innovation and capital deployment, along with the possibility of reduced individual and corporate taxes.

Analysts have noted that alternative asset managers are experiencing significant secular tailwinds, while the sectors encompassing retail and wealth management are seen as particularly promising. Exchanges, however, are perceived as less appealing in positive markets, exhibiting slower growth compared to other asset-sensitive financial sectors like asset managers and some brokers. The potential for certain policies to benefit energy exchange businesses was acknowledged, though growth prospects in other asset classes appear less robust. The brokerage sector is highlighted as a particularly favored area entering 2025, supported by more resilient short-term rates that enhance margin lending and other higher-margin operations, alongside a profitable retail customer base which could sustain an extended period of high trading activity among retail investors.

The sales growth at Cboe Global Markets is perceived to be stagnating due to mature trends in its leading SPX franchise, varied growth in VIX products, and losses in market share within U.S. equities and options. The slowing performance of the company's Index franchise, which contributes significantly to net revenue and has been a key growth driver historically, is seen as overshadowing its other business initiatives. Expectations are set for a moderate earnings growth path in the mid-single digits over the coming years, contrasting with the historically higher growth rates.